The Belarusian opposition blames Lukashenko and Sunday’s election

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya refuses to call what is happening this weekend in Belarus elections.

“It’s Shemi,” said the exiled opposition leader. “This is a military operation; the operation was organized by the regime to hold on to power.”

For three decades, the country was led by the rising authoritarian Alexander Lukashenko, now firmly backed by Vladimir Putin who is using his neighbor in his all-out invasion of Ukraine.

This Sunday, Belarusians will see Lukashenko’s name on the ballot paper

NO private spectators are allowed.

The strict controls are beneficial because the last time Belarusians voted for a President, the country was swept by mass protests.

In 2020, Alexander Lukashenko allowed Svetlana Tikhanovskaya to run against him, thinking that a political novice – and a woman – would not have an impact.

It was a false unity.

Tikhanovskaya, who decided to stand in her husband’s place after Lukashenko put him in prison, claimed victory.

When Lukashenko was given 80% of the votes, crowds took to the streets in the biggest threat to Lukashenko’s rule. The protests were eventually crushed by riot police with mass arrests and brute force.

The European Union then refused to recognize that Lukashenko’s In Law as President.

Today, all important opposition figures from the period are in prison or have fled abroad, like Tikhanovskaya. The former Belarusian protesters fear for peace.

So the opposition leader encouraged him to take to the streets again on Sunday.

“We call on the Belarusians to throw away this Shamu and to the international community to make it happen,” said the BBC. “But I say to Belarusians, you have to stay safe until the real moment of action.

“Because people live in constant fear, and the state is now intensifying the repression.”

You feel fear immediately when you talk to Belarusians.

Many do not want to talk publicly about politics at all. Some ask you to change their names, so choose their names carefully.

Some still continue with Belarus Chat only with encrypted messages which they quickly delete.

They all say that the political openness in the country has been shut down.

Bysol, a non-profit organization that helps to evacuate those at risk, reports a surge of about 30 or 40 applications a month.

As of 2020, the group has released more than 1,500 people.

It also supports former political prisoners who are trying to build a life in exile after their release.

For Yana Zhuravleva, a vet, that was difficult.

Before 2020 he was dedicated to his work and was not active in politics. But that summer he joined the big crowds, hoping to change.

He was later sentenced to three years for a “serious breach of public order”.

“We were punished for everything,” he recalls of his time in prison.

He estimates that about 1 in 10 women were there because of the protests. Like them, Yana was added to the register of those “prone to excessive fragmentation and destructive activity”.

“You can’t go to the sports hall, your only letters come from relatives and you get few visiting rights. When you complain you hear the same answer: remember how you are here,” He remembered me in Poland, where he left after his recent release.

Yana admits that she took “titanic” strength and did not slide into deep depression.

“In prison, I didn’t cry. But when I got out, I just wanted to cry all the time, and I didn’t know why.”

Several people I have contacted have talked about seeking psychological help, after being interrogated, threatened or arrested.

They describe the security service that hunts anyone with a link to the opposition and to the opposition, then it demands the names of all those present.

The pressure never stops.

One woman inside Belarus, who was looking for human rights, told me that she had to stop going to court hearings because the authorities found her.

If they could prove any link to a banned human rights organization, they could be accused of “exaggeration”.

“With some acts of support, but I have to be careful,” he told me anonymously.

“You have a very strong sense of helplessness when you see all this injustice.”

Viasna is currently freeing 1,256 political prisoners in Belarus. Most were granted amnesties recently, but were soon replaced.

For those who escape the pressure – the chef of Belarus, there is the added struggle of knowing that they may not return for a long time.

That’s why Natalia, not her real name, decided to stay in Belarus even after she was arrested twice for participating in protests.

“You’re at a higher risk if you’re on the ‘Eat’ list,” he explains.

“You can’t get a job because you’re in the police database and the authorities are always watching you…”

For Natalia that meant being arrested again, initially for walking her dog without a lead.

He remembers: “They were saying that I got angry and woke up so much that I raised my arms around 2023. He was held for ten days with up to 14 people in two cells.

For more than a week, he slept on the wooden floor.

Natalia finds me really angry.

He is currently abroad and plans to return soon, to his cats. But his neighbors say the policeman just visits his house, looking for any protesters who might vote on Sunday.

Svetlana Toukhanovskaya believes that the continued repression shows that Lukashenko and his allies are afraid.

“The pressure of 2020 is still alive and should eliminate any chance of a revival,” the opposition leader said.

“You know Belarusians have not accepted or forgiven him, and they still want change.”

But he admits there is little sign of that in the short term.

For a while after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Belarusians in Belarus hoped that their neighbors could succeed in defeating Putin with the help of the west, and that Lukashenko would follow him.

Others have turned to the previous path themselves, opting for power after their peaceful protests have failed.

But Ukraine’s military is now struggling to hold sway with President Donald Trump cracking down on peace talks.

“A democratic country cannot make a concession to put Putin,” Tikhanovskaya says, describing Lukashenko as a danger to the ground.

He allows the Russians to launch missiles into Ukraine from Belarus and send their tanks into his territory.

He also allows free movement of migrants to the Polish border into the EU.

“You allow Putin to send nuclear weapons and his army to Belarus, and it’s a very short way to Poland and Lithuania,” Tikhanovskaya said.

“You and Putin are a pair, and you are supporting other dictators. You are part of this conspiracy of evil.”

There is no doubt that Sunday’s return of Alexander Lukashenko will go according to his plan.

Jana, a former political prisoner explains: “Those people are very talented.

“They really created opportunities to protest.”

Now he is trying to return to his work as a vet, but in Poland, and recover from three difficult years behind bars.

Those I spoke to now see Lukashenko’s retirement, or eventual death, as their greatest hope for democracy.

At the moment, many are focused on change: There has been an interesting revival of Belarusian culture and language, which causes opposition. It is very much a crop that we do in such conditions.

Natalia agrees: “But we feel like there is no hope. There is despair,” said Natalia.

But there are no obvious regrets, though.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s personal life has changed a lot since her rise to politics.

Cut off from her country, her husband is also a political prisoner – held in solitary confinement for nearly two years.

The opposition leader insists he “genuinely believes” in change.

“2020 has been a big psychological change in Belarus. I don’t know how long it will take, but that change will not disappear.”