The Mets agree Griffin Canning one-year, $4.25MM free agent contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The contract, pending a physical, contains an additional $1MM in performance bonuses.
This will be Canning’s third team this season. The Angels dealt him to the Braves in a one-man exchange Jorge Soler in the hours of the re-opening of the trading market. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out at the time, Canning wasn’t a lock to stick in Atlanta for more than a few weeks. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz revealed that Canning will receive a salary of $5.1MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility. The Braves balked at that price and did not tender him last month, confirming the trade was about ending the final two years of Soler’s contract.
That made Canning a free agent for the first time in his career. The 28-year-old is headed to Queens and should compete for a replacement job. Canning has more than five years of service and cannot be sent to children without his permission. He will be on the MLB roster in some capacity, though he may be pushed to long relief to open the year.
A second-round pick out of UCLA in 2017, Canning quickly became one of the Angels’ best prospects. He has projected as a speedy college arm with the potential to stay in the middle of the rotation. Canning reached the majors less than two years later, but he had an uphill career. He posted a 4.58 earned run average over 90 1/3 innings as a rookie. His best season came during the shortened 2020 schedule, as he posted a 3.99 ERA in 11 starts.
That remains Canning’s only showing under 4.00. Pitchers posted a 5.60 ERA in 14 MLB appearances in 2021, leading the Halos to option him to Triple-A. He landed on the injured list almost immediately with a stress reaction in his lower back. That happened the following year and ultimately cost him the entire 2022 season.
At the time, it looked like the injury might derail his career. The back was very difficult, but he also battled elbow pain during 2019-20. Canning has fortunately been able to stay healthy for the past two seasons. He went on the injured list twice in 2023, though both were minor injuries related to minor leg issues. Canning avoided IL entirely this year. However, his performance has declined.
Canning has pitched to a 4.32 ERA in 127 innings over the past two seasons. This year has been a struggle, as he has allowed 5.19 runs per nine over a career-high 171 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate dropped to 17.6%, more than eight points south of last year’s clip of 25.9%. The walk scored a few points while his swinging strikeout percentage dropped from 12.8% to a league average of 11%.
Things also took a small step back. Canning is averaging 93.4 MPH on his four-seam fastball this season, a tick below last season’s 94.7 MPH. Opponents threw in the towel on that pitch, connecting on 16 homers with a .529 slugging percentage. Canning features four standard pitch combinations (fastball, switchup, slider, curveball) and occasionally looks like a potential starting fourth. The Mets will try to help him find that form consistently.
Canning becomes the third starter the Mets could add in free agency. They go into the middle of the market to get upside plays Frankie Montas again Clay Holmesthe latter will enter the rotation after six seasons as a full-time assistant. Canning doesn’t have the same ceiling — hence the much lower price tag — but he fits New York’s apparent preference for stock depth.
Montas, Kodai Senga, David Petersonand Holmes should all be in the Opening Day rotation. Canning again Paul Blackburn he will fight for the fifth starting job as things stand. The Mets would prefer to run a six-man rotation. Senga is limited to starting one season this year due to injury. They will need to carefully monitor Holmes’ performance so that he doesn’t get too tired once he recovers. Blackburn finished 2024 in the IL and had offseason back surgery that could delay Spring Training.
More to come.
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