Exit polls suggest a tight three-way race

An exit poll in the Republic of Ireland suggests Sinn Féin has 21.1% of the first popular vote and Fine Gael 21%, making the general election result too close to call.

The poll shows Fianna Fáil has 19.5% of the first preference vote.

It also suggests that 20% of second preference votes go to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin at 17%.

The results were published at 22:00 local time and were produced by Ipsos B&A for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin. It has an error rate of 1.4%.

The results also show that initial support for the Green Party stands at 4%; Employees at 5%; the Social Democrats at 5.8%; People Before Profit-Solidarity at 3.1%; and independents at 12.7%, Independent Ireland 2.2% and others at 1.9%.

The poll is based on 5,018 completed interviews carried out immediately after people cast their ballots at polling stations in 43 counties across Ireland.

In the 2020 Irish general election, Sinn Féin received 24.53% of the first preference vote, while Fianna Fáil received 22.18% and Fine Gael received 20.86%.

The results of this survey have set the stage for the official counting of votes which will start at 09:00 local time on Saturday and is expected to continue throughout the weekend.

Analysis by BBC News NI political editor, Enda McClafferty

Exit polls are far from an exact science, but they are a good indicator of where the votes are going.

In 2020, it predicted a close battle between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin and in the end, only three seats separated the parties.

If the exit polls are right this time, then Sinn Féin will be pleased with its performance.

It comes slightly ahead of Fine Gael, but falls short of the nearly 25% Sinn Féin secured in 2020.

The party struggled in the election campaign after a series of damaging controversies and inconclusive European and local council elections in June where it received 12% of the vote.

In this three-week campaign, it managed to regain lost ground with the promise of revolution.

But delivering on that promise can be a challenge if the exit polls are right.

It suggests that Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5% could return to the government benches, with the help of two smaller parties and some independents.

Although Sinn Féin’s path to power is more challenging as it hoped to lead a coalition of left-leaning parties, it can be difficult to get numbers on the performance of those smaller parties.

But the real picture will be clear only when all the results are in.

It is possible that some of the 43 may not have a final result until the beginning of next week.

Successful candidates are known as Teachtaí Dála (TDs) and there are 174 seats to be filled, but the Ceann Comhairle (speaker) is automatically returned.

More than 680 people were competing for the remaining 173 seats.

The number of seats required for a total majority is 88 but no party is fielding enough candidates to win a majority on its own.

The first meeting of the new Dáil (lower house of parliament) is on 18 December but it is unlikely that coalition talks will be concluded by then.

The government will be officially formed when the Dáil passes a vote to install a new Taoiseach.

Few expect a new government to be in office before 2025.