The Dodgers continue to load up, having reached an agreement with them Blake Snell on a five-year contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, comes with $182MM guaranteed but reportedly includes about $60MM in deferrals that will bring the current price down to $160-165MM. Snell, a Boras Corporation client, receives a $52MM signing bonus and limited no-trade protection, while the deal includes a $5MM share bonus in the event of a trade. The contract does not contain any opt-out provisions and covers Snell’s 32-36 seasons.
It’s the biggest offseason move to date and represents a quicker resolution than Snell’s previous trips to the market. The star southpaw was coming off a Cy Young campaign last winter. The long-term deal he wanted never materialized, leading to the free agent’s stay. Snell went unsigned in March before joining the Giants on a two-year contract that guaranteed him $62MM and, more importantly, allowed him to opt out after the first season.
Snell had a rough start to the season. He allowed more than a run per inning in his first six appearances. He went on the injured list twice in the first three months while battling groin discomfort. As recently as mid-June, it looked like a lock Snell would pursue a return to free agency.
That all changed as soon as he returned from his second IL stint. At the end of the season, there was little doubt he would pass on the $30MM remaining on his contract with San Francisco. Snell was the best hitter in baseball. Over his last 14 starts, he has turned in a 1.23 earned run average while holding opponents to a .123/.211/.171 hitting line that looks like a throwback to the days when pitchers hit.
Snell struck out over 38% of the batters he faced in that run. He had five double-digit hitting games and fanned at least eight batters in 10 outings. Snell had the best start to his career at the trade deadline. He struck out 15 over six scoreless innings against the Rockies on July 27 before pitching a no-hitter against the Reds with 11 strikeouts on August 2.
The totals were still somewhat weighed down by his poor first two months. He finished the year with a 3.12 ERA and a 34.7% strikeout rate over 104 innings that included 20 starts. That’s a solid season but it didn’t earn him a single Cy Young vote. The overall platform year is less impressive than the 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball he posted during his ’23 campaign in San Diego. Snell finished the season looking as good as he had been during his Cy Young years.
It appears that the Dodgers are covering the first two months of an abbreviated Spring Training and injuries. While this year is an extreme example, Snell has been the slowest starter throughout his career. He has a 3.95 ERA and a 28.4% strikeout rate over the first half of his nine major league seasons. His ERA dropped to 2.39 while he raised his hitting percentage over 32% after the All-Star break.
The biggest knock has been his lack of consistency. Snell has reached the 180-inning mark twice – his 2018 Cy Young season with the Rays and his award-winning ’23 campaign. Outside of those seasons, Snell pitched in the 125-130 inning range.
That doesn’t worry the Dodgers, who have shown they’re more interested in chasing the top than the pile. Los Angeles benefited and expanded Tyler Glasnow last season despite never going over 120 MLB innings in a season. The Dodgers will deliver Shohei Ohtani another chance to play coming off his second major elbow surgery. They will probably meet again Clayton Kershaw. They’ve had plenty of good hitters in the farm system but have seen many go down with injuries.
It’s a very targeted approach to the postseason. The Dodgers are putting forward pitchers who define themselves as potential starters for Game 1. They are more than willing to take the risk of injury while chasing that ceiling. That left them short of the first hitting in 2023, which led to a sweep of the Diamondbacks in the Division Series. Injuries mounted again this fall, but they were just enough in the form of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty again Walker Buehler putting together the October rotation. With a star-studded lineup, that was enough to lift their second trophy in five years.
Snell arguably fits that mold as well as any pitcher in baseball. Among pitchers with at least 200 innings in the last two years, only Reynaldo López again Tarik Skubal had an ERA lower than his mark of 2.57. Snell’s 32.7% strikeout rate is second, trailing only Glasnow by half a percentage point. No one has a higher swing strike rate.
The Dodgers have four pitchers who could start the first game of a playoff series. Snell, Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow are each capable of providing ace-caliber production on average. All four aren’t expected to live up to playing time, but the Dodgers have no shortage of talented options behind them. Kershaw figures to return to the rotation mix once he re-signs, of course Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and hope Nick Frasso they are coming back from major surgery. Bobby Miller is looking to bounce back from a poor sophomore season after posting a 3.76 ERA in 22 starts as a rookie. Landon Knack again Justin Wrobleski they are arms that can go deep.
That’s before considering the possibility of additional acquisitions. The Dodgers will make a push for the NPB ace Roki Sasakiwould be a fifth starter if he goes to LA Even if Sasaki signs elsewhere, the Dodgers could pursue Garrett Crochet in the off-season trade market and/or continue to add starting coverage at the deadline.
Of course, the ability to assemble this type of rotation talent is a reflection of the Dodgers’ financial strength. Even if other front offices share their usual approach of value over intensity, few ownership groups are willing to match LA’s spending spree. The Dodgers have often shied away from hitting splashes under president of baseball Andrew Friedman, but that has changed over the past calendar year. This is their third nine-figure investment since last season (fourth including Ohtani). They signed Yamamoto for $325MM and extended Glasnow in a deal that included $110MM in new capital.
MLBTR ranked Snell as the #2 first baseman in the class and projected a five-year, $160MM contract. The real value of the deal lies right there. The specific NPV will not be clear until the regression structure is presented. The expected after-tax price of $32-33MM indicates that the deal will have a net present value in the range of $160-165MM. That would be the second largest cap hit on LA’s books, trailing only the $46.1MM CBT figure on Ohtani’s heavily discounted $700MM contract.
Either way, the deal would likely push the Dodgers’ competitive balance sheet north of $300MM. They will likely enter the fourth and final penalty tier, which starts at $301MM. The Dodgers have been subject to the highest category of escalating tax penalties for at least three straight seasons. The Snell deal itself will cost the Dodgers something in the $25-30MM range in taxes by moving them from the middle of the second penalty tier to the top of the highest tax bracket. Future spending will be taxed at a maximum rate of 110%.
It’s a big commitment but the Dodgers are well prepared to make it. They are out of the revenue opportunity that comes with winning the World Series. More importantly, the structure of Ohtani’s contract allows the Dodgers to continue to accumulate talent. While the Ohtani deal wasn’t a deal breaker in terms of the luxury tax, there is a lot of upside from a raw salary standpoint. Paying the NL MVP a $2MM salary for the next nine seasons is a big reason they can continue to take big money in the short term.
Snell was sidelined Corbin Burns and before Fried Max as the top freshman in this year’s class. In addition to the Dodgers’ usual supply of high-ceiling arms, Snell came with the benefit of not paying draft compensation. He was the only one of the top three starters not to be given a chance to qualify. Snell got a QO in his first free agent outing, so the Giants couldn’t make an offer this time around. Burnes and Fried each declined a qualifying offer and would have cost the Dodgers their second and fifth top picks in the 2025 draft and $1MM in their ’26 international rookie bonus pool.
Burnes and Fried become the clear #1-2 options for other teams looking for top flight starters. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported tonight that the Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles were also in the running for Snell. They are all tied for the top starting pitchers on the market — Boston in particular — and should remain active in that regard in the coming weeks.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that the Dodgers and Snell had a five-year contract, shortly after the outfielder revealed on Instagram that he was joining LA Jeff Passan and Jorge Castillo of ESPN first reported the $182MM guarantee. The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reported that the deal contains waivers that will reduce the current figure to $32-33MM per year. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times started with a $52MM signing bonus, while Feinsand had limited no-trade protection. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported the absence of an opt-out clause. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the existence of a share bonus, which Harris put at $5MM.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
