The Dodgers made a big deal out of their bullpen this weekend, agreeing to a deal with a free-agent winter lefty. Tanner Scott. Before that deal, the Dodgers had some discussions with the right-hander Kirby Yatesreports Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times.
The interest is understandable, as Yates is coming off an excellent season. He threw 61 2/3 innings for the Rangers last year, allowing just a 1.17 earned run average over nine innings. His 11.8% walk rate was high but also unusual for him. He was equally effective with those free passes by striking out 35.9% of the batters he faced and getting ground balls on 45.5% of the plays. He took over the closer role at Texas, earning 33 saves on the year.
Despite that excellent season, the righty’s market will be limited. He turns 38 in March, which will determine how long teams are willing to invest in him. He has also had a number of injury problems over the years. He didn’t pitch at all from 2020 to 2022, and Tommy John surgery is a big reason. He returned to the mound in 2023 and had decent but poor results, with a 3.28 ERA that year. His 31.5% strikeout rate was quite strong but a few ticks below his 2024 rate, and the walk rate was much higher, finishing at 14.6%.
Atlanta could have kept him around through 2024 with a $5.75MM club option but chose to buy out for $1.25MM instead. That led to Yates getting a one-year, $4.5MM deal from the Rangers, which worked out pretty well. His good season will get him to that level, but some skepticism from teams is still warranted.
The Dodgers are generally willing to invest in talented pitchers, despite injury concerns. That hasn’t always happened, as they’ve been bitten at times over the years, even though they did lift the World Series trophy last year.
The club may still be interested in Yates but Scott’s deal may reduce their urgency. It’s not as if the bullpen is an obvious weakness at first. The relief club had a combined ERA of 3.53 last year, a mark shared by only three other teams in the majors. They lost Blake Treinen again Joe Kelly free agent at the end of the season but re-signed Treinen last month and now has Scott in the fold.
RosterResource currently projects the club to run a six-man rotation next year, which is a possibility. In 2024, they avoid using Yoshinobu Yamamoto on a five-day schedule to help him make the transition from Japan, where starters typically pitch once a week. By 2025, they will be colliding Roki Sasakiyounger than Yamamoto and has had many injuries in his career. They will get boys again Shohei Ohtani, Tony Gonsolin again Dustin May back from surgery for a long time. Blake Snell again Tyler Glasnow they don’t claim workhorses in their work either. Clayton Kershaw he is likely to re-sign with the team and return to action, although he has also had his share of injury concerns recently. In short, having six starters and reducing everyone’s workload would make sense.
Running a six-man rotation will usually limit a club to a seven-man bullpen, as clubs are not allowed to field more than 13 pitchers. Ohtani’s status as a two-way player means he can be effectively counted on as a position player, allowing the Dodgers to have six-man and eight-man rotations at times, though not early in the season. Ohtani missed the 2024 season with UCL surgery and then needed arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder a few months ago. Last month, manager Dave Roberts said it was unlikely that Ohtani would be in the club’s rotation to start the year, so they could be limited to 13 pitchers and a seven-man bullpen until Ohtani can return to the mound.
Scott and Treinen will be in two spots, and so will the Dodgers Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Anthony Banda again Ryan Brasier. That makes seven arms that appear to be well enclosed. Vesia is the only option and he just posted a 1.76 ERA last year. It’s still possible the club will sign Yates anyway and wait to see if everyone stays healthy in the spring. If that happens, they can cut someone at the end of the camp. But it is also possible that they will simply pass on Yates and see how the season plays out with this team.
As mentioned, the club had a strong bullpen last year and now they have added Scott to it. RosterResource also projects next year’s payroll at $369MM and their competitive balance sheet number at $371MM, both of which are close to $40MM above last year’s figures. Given how aggressive they’ve been, no one would be surprised if they keep adding, but they may also feel like they’ve done enough at this point.
If Yates needs to look elsewhere for his next contract, he should have plenty of options. He has been linked to the Cubs, Tigers, Rangers and Diamondbacks this offseason and may have interest from other clubs as well. Teams like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox and Atlanta had some interest in Scott and could look elsewhere for help after landing with the Dodgers. The charity market has been hot lately, and Scott, AJ Minter, Jose Leclerc, Jeff Hoffman again Andrew Kittredge agreement with deals in recent weeks.
At the start of the season, MLBTR projected Yates to a one-year, $14MM guaranteed deal. That was a reflection of his excellent season mentioned above but also his yellow flags. The offseason has been kind to some nurses, with Scott, Minter and Clay Holmes beyond speculation, though the Mets plan to extend Holmes as a starter. Hoffman came in under his prediction but that seems to have been the result of some concerns about his shoulder in his body. Treinen received a two-year contract despite turning 37 this year and having a long injury history. All of those things should lead to a healthy deal for Yates, regardless of which team he ends up with.
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