The Pirates added to their staff on Friday, announcing a one-year deal with the lefty. Caleb Ferguson which will reportedly pay an Excel Sports client $3MM. The Bucs have open roster spots so they don’t need to commit next year.
Ferguson, 28, has been a strong southpaw in the majors for several years now. He missed the 2021 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery but put up good numbers in the three seasons before that, followed by the three seasons after the procedure. In all, he pitched 261 2/3 innings, allowing a 3.68 earned run average. His 9.4% walk rate is slightly above average but not likely, while his 27.5% strikeout rate is well above par and his 45.6% groundball rate is above average as well.
His ERA got a little tighter in 2024, though a deeper dive into the numbers suggests he was as efficient as ever, unfortunately contributing to more runs allowed. Between the Yankees and Astros, he threw 54 1/3 innings with a 4.64 ERA. But his 26.9% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 46.7% ground ball rate were all very close to his career norms. His .340 batting average on balls in play and 66.6% slugging percentage were both on the unpleasant side of average, which is why metrics like his 3.74 FIP and 3.43 SIERA were close to his career ERA.
He’s a solid player for the Pirates, who have lost each and every one Aroldis Chapman, Jalen Beeks again Ryan Borucki to gain freedom at the end of the season. The departure of those southern steps left them too Joey Wentzwaived claim in September with a career ERA of 5.56, as the only shortstop left on the roster. Ferguson is quickly becoming the top southpaw in Pittsburgh’s bullpen.
That doesn’t mean he’ll be limited to a special role, as his splits aren’t too bad. He’s naturally been better against lefties, holding them to a .231/.333/.375 line in his career, but righties have fared much less against him with a .245/.321/.381 line. He has six saves and 49 in his career, so he will probably move into the bullpen, depending on what other moves the Pirates make with their bullpen this winter.
It looks like Ferguson may end up running, as MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf reports that the Bucs will extend him in spring training. That would be an interesting pivot for Ferguson, as he has been in the bullpen for most of his big league career. He has 14 starts under his belt, but most of them have been of the one- or two-inning “opener” variety.
He came up as a starter in the minor leagues, though, so it wouldn’t be a complete stranger to him. As mentioned, he has a neutral split, which probably allows him to come out on the full list. He also has a completely different vocal mix of ease. According to Statcast, he threw four different pitches at least 9.8% of the time last year: the four-seamer, sinker, cutter and slurve. He didn’t lean on any one pitch too much, striking out 43.3% of his four-seamer. Statcast also classified 0.2% of his pitches as sweepers.
Turning shortcuts into launchers has become a popular trend in recent years, and boys alike Seth Lugo, Michael King, Garrett Crochet again Reynaldo López some of the better success stories. On the other hand, results with Jordan Hicks they were put together again AJ Puk conversion is stopped immediately.
It’s an understandable gambit, given the high prices for starting pitchers, as flyers on high-risk guys have been entering the eight-man zone this winter. Walker Buehler earned $21.05MM from a bad year. Boys love it Alex Cobb again Justin Verlander I got $15MM despite being old by major league standards and coming off injury-plagued seasons.
Making a $3MM investment in Ferguson and turning him into a backend startup would be great business, but there are reasons to think it might not happen. As mentioned, the Bucs have an obvious need to relieve at left tackle, while the rotation is a strong part of the roster. They will enter the season with a strong core Paul Skenes, Jared Jones again Mitch Kellerand the same boys Bailey Falter, Johan Oviedo, Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler again Thomas Harrington all people will go back.
The easiest and most likely outcome is that the Bucs just use those guys in the trade and move Ferguson out of the bullpen, but there’s little risk of stretching him in the spring to see how he looks. It is much easier to go from long to short trips at the beginning of the year, instead of stretching out during the season. The spring is the perfect time to do the test, as Ferguson can easily slide in when he’s inactive or if the Pirates eventually select other arms in that role.
At the very least, stretching Ferguson as a starter in spring training could open the door for him to serve as a true multi-inning bullpen piece. He worked more than one inning 11 times last year — more with Houston post-trade than with the Yankees before — but he went two innings. Given the mix of pitches and splits, it’s not out of the question that he could have success working in slightly longer routines while keeping the door open for occasional spot-starting or opening work in the event of a bullpen game.
Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported on the deal. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com first reported the terms of the deal.
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