President-elect Donald J. Trump on Tuesday refused to withdraw from using the military to restore the Panama Canal, which the US restored to control of that country decades ago.
Last month, Mr. Trump falsely accused Panama of allowing the Chinese military to control a key shipping lane, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and of overcharging American ships.
He also said Panama was charging US ships “high rates,” and warned that if they were not reduced after taking office next month, he would demand that the United States be given “full, immediate and unequivocal” control over the canal. “
Although it is not clear what caused Mr. Trump has become obsessed with the Panama Canal recently, and some Republicans have long opposed the decades-old deal that changed the shipping route to Panama. When Ronald Reagan ran for president, he said that the people of the United States were the “rightful owners” of the canal and brought the audience to their feet with the line: “We bought it; we paid for it; we build it.”
Who owns the Panama Canal?
After an unsuccessful attempt by the French to build the canal, it was finally built by the United States between 1904 and 1914. And the US government managed the canal for several decades.
The US also participated in the creation of the country of Panama. At the beginning of the 20th century, the island of Panama was part of Colombia. When Colombia rejected the proposed canal agreement, the US government encouraged rebellion. The northern provinces of Colombia split bitterly, forming the Republic of Panama. The United States Army then supported the Colombian military in suppressing the rebellion.
The US control of the canal caused a great deal of tension with Panama. In 1964, anti-American riots broke out in the US-controlled canal area.
The riots led to a renegotiation of the Panama Canal agreements. In 1977, US President Jimmy Carter and Panamanian leader Omar Efraín Torrijos signed the Torrijos-Carter accords. The treaties guaranteed the permanent neutrality of the Panama Canal. After a period of joint maintenance, the agreements called for the United States to relinquish control of the canal in the year 2000.
Panama took full control in 1999, and has since operated the canal through the Panama Canal Authority.
Mr. Carter, who died on December 29, always viewed the treaties as signature achievements, and they featured prominently in his obituary.
“By a strange accident of timing, we now have a president who is thinking of restoring this canal just as the world recognizes the transfer of the canal as an important part of the legacy of the late president,” said James Fallows, who was the author of Mr. Carter. at the time and accompanied the president on that 1978 trip to Panama.
How did Panama respond?
In a statement accusing Mr. Trump last month, President José Raúl Mulino of Panama wrote “every square meter of the Panama Canal and the area around it belongs to PANAMA.”
Mr. Mulino also said that American ships are not overcharged. He emphasized that the prices charged for ships and marine vessels, “are not just what is wanted.”
Panamanian officials said all countries are subject to the same fees, although they will vary depending on the size of the vessel. They are established in public meetings by the Panama Canal Authority, and take into account market conditions, international competition, operating and maintenance costs, said Mr. Mulino.
Prices have increased recently, however. This is because from 2023, Panama experienced a severe drought, driven by the combination of El Niño and climate change, Mr. With water in Lake Gatun, the lake’s main reservoir, at historically low levels, authorities have reduced shipping in the canal to conserve the lake’s fresh water.
Trump’s spokesman said that because the United States is the largest user of the canal, the increase in fees hits its ships the hardest.
What is China’s role in the Panama Canal?
The Chinese military is not there, as Mr. Trump said, “operating” the Panama Canal.
“There are no Chinese soldiers in the trench, for the love of God,” said Mr. Mulino in his speech on Thursday. “The world is free to visit the canal.”
A Hong Kong-based company, CK Hutchison Holdings, manages two ports at the entrance to the canal. And some experts said that raises legitimate concerns for the competitiveness and security of the United States.
Ryan C. Berg, director of the US program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, noted that CK Hutchison will likely have data on all ships entering the Panama Canal. China has been using its naval and maritime activities to gather foreign intelligence and conduct espionage.
“China exercises, or can’t exercise, something to control even when war breaks out,” said Mr. Berg. “I think there is cause for concern.”
Mao Ning, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said on Tuesday that China would “always respect Panama’s sovereignty” over the Panama Canal.
China is the second largest user of the Panama Canal after the United States. In 2017, Panama severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan and recognized the island as part of China, a major win for Beijing.
Can the United States reassert control?
It’s not easy.
Mr. Mulino has made it clear that the Panama Canal is not for sale. He noted that the agreements established the permanent neutrality of the canal and “guarantee its open and safe operation to all nations.” And the Senate approved the Panama Canal accords in 1978.
Mick Mulvaney, who was Mr. Trump suggested that the stimulus was part of a negotiating tactic to lower rates.
“You know, I can’t imagine the US military taking over this canal, but you have to imagine that there is someone out there scratching their head, ‘Is Donald Trump crazy enough to do something like that?'” Mr. Mulvaney. said Tuesday on “The Hill” on NewsNation.
Mr. Berg said the neutrality treaty makes it difficult for Panama to offer special tariffs to the United States. And, he noted, Mr. Mulino is “incredibly pro-American” and may be willing to help the incoming Trump administration tackle issues like illegal immigration.
“President Mulino will be a great ally with the United States,” said Mr. Berg. “We should not want this to turn into some kind of political war because we will need President Mulino for many other things.”
But there is, as Mr. Trump threatened, military option. Mr. Trump as president can order an attack on Panama. Under the terms of its constitution, Panama has no military. But experts dismissed Mr. Trump on Tuesday said it was an empty threat.
“If the US wanted to violate international law and act like Vladimir Putin, the US could invade Panama and take back the canal,” said Benjamin Gedan, director of the Wilson Center’s Latin America Program in Washington. “No one can see it as a legitimate action, and it will not only bring bad damage to their image, but also the instability of the channel.”
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