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Where will Jack Flaherty end up?

If there’s been one defining feature of the 2024-25 offseason so far (besides Juan Soto‘s record-breaking contract), that the market for the first record has been very strong. On the heels of the 2023-24 offseason that saw the top arms on the market as Blake Snell again Jordan Montgomery stay in the market until the calendar changes to March, right hand Michael Wacha started things off by reuniting with the Royals before free agency began and the pace hasn’t slowed down much since. After the right hand Corbin Burns reached an agreement with the Diamondbacks in the final days of December, almost every notable starting pitcher was already off the market by the time the calendar turned to January.

Perhaps the most distinct from that of the right hand Jack FlahertyMLBTR ranked him as the #8 offseason free agent (fourth among starters) earlier this winter as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. At the time, we predicted that Flaherty would get a five-year, $115MM deal in free agency. That prediction at least appears to be complete in proper football, as Flaherty is reportedly seeking a five-year deal at this stage of his free agency. Between a strong winter pitching market and the fact that Flaherty was able to reach free agency without being interrupted by a Qualifying Offer due to a midseason trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers, it makes sense that he should have a strong chance of reaching that level. of the feast.

On the other hand, however, it is important to note that there are some signs that the casting market has started to cool down. Burns’ deal with Arizona just before the New Year came with a solid annual fee and a potentially lucrative opt-out clause after the second year, but the deferred money involved in the deal reportedly drops the current value of the deal below $200MM. MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM deal for Burnes earlier this winter, so while that current salary cap is more or less in line with what’s expected going into the offseason, the deal somehow pales in comparison. in this signed by Fried Max in early winter and falls short of the reported righty’s $245MM.

If the rookie market has started to cool down somewhat, it’s possible that the market for Flaherty could start to heat up as Spring Training approaches. After all, we only need to look back at Montgomery and Snell last winter to see how the market for pitchers also falls if they don’t have enough time left for regular spring training. For now, however, Flaherty still seems to be enjoying a strong market. The Blue Jays, Giants, Cubs, Tigers and Oroles have all been linked to right-handers in recent days.

The Blue Jays and Giants have both been linked to a slew of offseason free agents, as neither team has been shy about their desire to acquire talent this winter. Toronto was among the finalists for Burnes before he signed with Arizona, and while the Giants were heavily linked to Burnes there were indications after his deal with the Diamondbacks that San Francisco focused more on offense than pitching. Given that the Giants are loaded at first baseman Pete Alonsoit’s possible the team’s interest in a Flaherty player is a backup plan in case they find themselves unable to land the big bat they want. It’s possible the same situation could play out with the Blue Jays, too. The club are known to have extended an offer to the outfielder Anthony Santander already, and reporting earlier this winter suggested that Toronto may only have room for one significant multi-year deal in the budget.

The Tigers may be in the same boat. While the club has the ability to make significant multi-year deals if it so desires, president of baseball operations Scott Harris appeared hesitant to make any significant multi-year commitments this winter, opting instead to stay put. Alex Cobb again Gleyber Torres with one-year deals. That doesn’t stop them from participating in the market for other big-time free agents, but with Tarik Skubal again Reese Olson to help anchor a young rotation it’s easy to imagine a club prioritizing a hitter if they decide to offer a player a nine-figure deal this winter. To that end, Detroit has been one of the teams most often linked to a third baseman Alex Bregman and seems to be mixed with Santander.

The two clubs that have generally focused on developing arms this winter are the Orioles and the Cubs. Baltimore is already adding Tomoyuki Sugano again Charlie Morton in its rotation this winter, and those additions have left them with a deep group of potential starters who don’t really need another arm. That being said, neither Sugano nor Morton can be expected to replace Burnes as the ace of the staff, and the 2023 staff. Kyle Bradish expected to miss at least the first half of 2025 it’s fair to assume the club would benefit from adding a player of Flaherty’s caliber. To that end, it looks like they are still on the edge of his market as they continue to look to improve even after last week’s deal for Morton.

As for Chicago, they somehow seem more suited to Flaherty’s services. The Cubs seemed very upset after the addition Kyle Tucker again Carson Kelly; while there is room at third base for another bat, they have never been linked to Alex Bregman in free agency given the presence of top prospects. Matt Shaw as a potential Opening Day starter instead. There has been a lot of buzz about adding to their staff, however, and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently described another addition in exchange as “inevitable” at the club, whether that’s a move to improve depth or bring a more impactful piece into the fold. . Flaherty would certainly fall into the latter category, but it’s worth noting that Sharma reported earlier this winter that when the Cubs partnered with Flaherty, he felt confused about his asking price at the time.

There is an incentive for Flaherty to wait at least a little longer before making his decision: the right-hander’s presence. Roki Sasaki in the market. Sasaki has been pursued by a number of teams and is rumored to have met with at least two of Flaherty’s suitors: the Giants and the Cubs. Given his unique status as a potential rotation prospect without a minor league deal (and a large portion of the club’s international bonus pool), it’s easy to imagine the number of people who are very hungry. clubs focused their attention directly on Sasaki when he was available. The right-hander’s decision is due on January 23, so it’s not hard to imagine Flaherty waiting for that date in case the club that misses out on Sasaki raises its offer or enters the fray as a potential new suitor.

Meanwhile, how do you think Flaherty’s free agency will play out? Will she come with her current celebrity boyfriend, or will a “mystery group” swoop in and seal the deal? Will the right-hander get a deal within the ballpark of the MLBTR forecast? Will he fall short, or perhaps exceed, his expectations? Have your say in the poll below.



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