Is Israel withdrawing from the terms of the end of the war in Lebanon? | Israel invades Lebanon

Confirming what many observers have reached, the Israeli paper Israel Hayom says that Israel may decide to stay in southern Lebanon beyond the 60-day withdrawal period specified in the ceasefire.

Failure to withdraw within 60 days would be another violation of the US-France-backed ceasefire agreement reached on November 27 between Lebanon and Israel.

Israel has broken the agreement hundreds of times.

But what does Israel’s failure to withdraw from South Lebanon mean after this 60-day period? Here’s what you need to know.

What’s going on?

Since the cease-fire, Hezbollah has stopped launching rockets into Israel and Israel has stopped constant bombing of areas in Beirut, the eastern Bekaa Valley and the south.

But the Israeli army is still in the south, bombing and demolishing houses and other infrastructure.

They also prevented people from returning to their homes in the south, shot Lebanese civilians, and killed at least 33 Lebanese civilians last month.

Israel must withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within 60 days of November 27, to be replaced by UNIFIL troops, followed by the Lebanese army.

But now Israel says Hezbollah’s more weapons in the south and its rebuilding efforts may lead it to “rethink” the withdrawal period.

What happens if they don’t keep their promise?

Nothing.

There is no way to enforce an end-of-war agreement without the renewal of the enemy.

Sources in Western embassies told Al Jazeera that the only guarantee for the implementation of US promises is that Israel will keep them.

Hezbollah may resume firing rockets at Israel but is unlikely to want to re-engage.

Hezbollah earlier responded to Israel’s violation by firing a warning rocket at a military base in the Kfarchouba Hills on December 2 that landed in an open area and caused casualties.

Israel retaliated by killing nine people in Lebanon.

What are the terms of a cease-fire?

Israel will withdraw all its troops from southern Lebanon in 60 days and Hezbollah will remove military infrastructure north of the Litani River and the Lebanese army will enter southern Lebanon.

What about all the people in the south who want to go home?

The immediate effect of the ceasefire agreement caused people to leave the shelters – many of them set up in schools across the country – that had housed them for more than two months.

Workers at another shelter visited by Al Jazeera in Sidon, southern Lebanon, said that by 10 a.m. on the day of the ceasefire, all the deportees had left and returned to their homes.

But many are still not at home.

On the second day of the ceasefire, an Arabic-speaking Israeli military spokesman effectively declared the entire South a no-go zone.

Some people said they visited their villages on the first day of the end of the fire but were prevented from going back.

Many people in the south are either in villages very close to their villages or live with family in areas where the Israelis do not live or block people.

What else happened?

On Christmas Day, Israel struck the Bekaa Valley between the towns of Talia and Hizzine in the Baalbek region.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati has called on the ceasefire monitoring committee to pressure Israel to respect the terms of the ceasefire, but so far it has had little effect.

Not only did Israel violate the ceasefire by continuing to attack, but it also penetrated deeper into Lebanese territory.

On December 26, Israeli troops advanced to Wadi al-Hujeir, eight kilometers (five miles) from the UN-demarcated Blue Line that separates Lebanon from Israel.

What is UNIFIL doing about this?

UNIFIL issued a statement on December 26, calling for an end to “actions that threaten the cessation of hostilities”.

It called for the “timely withdrawal” of Israeli troops and the deployment of the Lebanese Army to southern Lebanon, as well as the implementation of UN resolution 1701, which stipulates that Hezbollah move its forces north of the Litani River and Israel under the Blue Line.

UNIFIL also expressed “concern over the continued destruction” by Israeli forces of “residential areas, agricultural land, and the road network in southern Lebanon”.