Earlier this offseason, the Cardinals turned down a potential offer from the Yankees. Marcus Stroman in St. Louis to Nolan Arenadoaccording to a report from Mark Feinsand, John Denton and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. It is not known if Arenado would have approved the trade. MLB.com reports that the Cardinals did not bring in the star third baseman because they were not interested in acquiring Stroman.
That doesn’t mean that negotiations between Arenado’s clubs have ended. The Yankees still have needs at both positions in the infield. Feinsand, Denton and Hoch report that they are showing more interest in them Paul Goldschmidt in the beginning. They write that signing Goldschmidt would make Arenado more likely to waive his no-trade clause to join his old teammates as a cornerback tandem in the Bronx.
Various reports have linked the Yankees to Goldschmidt throughout the week. It seems likely that they will turn to one of the short-term free options to improve the starting lineup. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Thursday that the Yankees are more likely to pursue an inexpensive first baseman than spend at the top of the market. Pete Alonso or Christian Walker. Walker, who the Yankees reportedly preferred over Alonso, is off the board in a $60MM deal with Houston.
Interestingly, Goldschmidt’s asking price itself could prove a sticking point. Many predictions, MLBTR included, assumed he would sign a one-year deal as he enters his age-37 season. Feinsand, Denton and Hoch report that Goldschmidt is looking for many years. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll get a two-year deal, which would be a big ask in midseason.
Goldschmidt hit .245/.302/.414 with 22 homers during his final year in St. Louis. He posted career-worst strikeout and walk rates with a total offense that topped the league’s average. Goldschmidt had a better second half after a rough start to the season, but the overall numbers are troubling given his age. MLBTR figured it would protect $15MM on a one-year contract.
Money is also an issue for Arenado. Even if the Yankees signed Goldschmidt and Arenado was willing to play there, they would still need to find a favorable return with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals owe the eight-time All-Star $64MM over the next three seasons, and the Rockies are on track for another $10MM through 2025-26. (Colorado’s obligations would go through in the event of a trade.) $12MM of the Cardinals’ $64MM cap is deferred. MLB.com writes that the current value of what St. Louis’ debt is estimated at $60MM.
The Cardinals are trying to extract at least a large portion of that deal. Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that the Astros would have earned about $45MM had Arenado not agreed to a proposed trade to Houston earlier this week. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported differently, writing that Houston would have taken $59MM. Either way, the Cardinals would have spent most of the money.
Derrick Goold of St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported this afternoon that the level of interest the Yankees have in Arenado depends on how much of a contract the Cardinals will make. Although it is not known how much the Yankees want to eat St. The righty will make $18MM next season and could create a player option for the same player in 2026 if he pitches 140 innings. The Arenado/Stroman swap would have freed the Cardinals from the former’s salary in 2026-27, but would not have represented a significant cut next season.
Arenado has a $32MM salary next year, $5MM of which is Colorado’s responsibility. Another $6MM is deferred, so immediate savings for St. Louis was only about $3MM. The Cardinals could try to convert Stroman themselves. The righty is posting a 4.31 ERA over 154 2/3 innings. His salary is above market but not, but it doesn’t appear that the Cardinals were interested in that sequence of moves.
The player’s competitive tax balance number is reset when traded. Assuming the NPV on Arenado’s contract is around three years and $60MM, he will carry around $20MM in luxury tax to the winning team if the Cardinals don’t spend money. RosterResource calculates New York’s luxury tax number at about $287MM. Signing Goldschmidt or taking on most of Arenado’s contract would push them beyond the $301MM tax cap. Doing both would put them over $301MM, which comes with a 110% tax on every dollar spent from that point.
Source link
