The Braves and Cubs are among the teams interested in releasing the right-hander Ryne Stanekaccording to a report from Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Stanek was listed among a number of shortstops the Cubs looked at earlier this week, though this is the first time a connection between the veteran and Atlanta has been reported.
Stanek, 33, split the 2024 campaign between the Mariners and Mets. Things didn’t go well for the veteran last year, as he pitched to a 4.88 ERA (78 ERA+) with a 4.14 FIP in 55 1/3 innings of work, though he was able to strike out 27.8% of his opponents over those opponents. . That down season came after a solid run with the Astros in Houston from 2021 to 2023, where he pitched to a 2.90 ERA in 173 2/3 innings with a 3.91 FIP. His numbers started to decline a bit toward the end of his time in Houston, however, and a closer look at his numbers over the past four seasons reveals an interesting dichotomy.
During Stanek’s first two years with Houston, he posted a 2.41 ERA and a 3.62 FIP. However, since then, those figures have reached 4.50 and 4.36 respectively. That’s despite the fact that his strikeout rate during those top years (28.2%) isn’t that far off from the 26% he posted the previous two seasons. That drop in strikeouts is more than made up for by the reduced number of walks, too. From 2021 to ’22 Stanek walked 13.2% of the opponents he faced, but over the past two years that number has dropped to 10.1%.
The reason for that difference lies within Stanek’s batting data. In that first season, Stanek excelled at cutting down on the worst types of contact. His base rate was a solid 7.1%, and 43.5% of his batted balls allowed were fly balls and 7.8% of them left the yard to become home runs. However, the last two seasons have seen Stanek start to get hit a lot. His barrel rate has increased to 8.4% since the start of the 2023 season, and that has made him the most popular at home in recent years. With fly balls now making up 51.6% of his batted balls allowed and 10.9% of those fly balls coming out of the yard, his total number of home runs allowed has nearly doubled over the past two years from what it was in his first two seasons in Houston. .
Betting on a big bounce-back from a player who will turn 34 in July has had back-to-back breakout seasons and was a below-average pitcher last year is always risky. That being said, if a winning club can help Stanek manage his 2025 home run problem it’s easy to see the upside he could offer. The hard-throwing righty hasn’t lost anything on his fastball, which averaged 97.9 mph last year. His strikeout rate rebounded significantly last year after a significant decline in 2023, and along with his improved walk rate Stanek’s 17.4 K-BB% was the best he’s posted since 2018. The right-hander’s SIERA of 3.56 was also the best. the number he has posted since that same season.
That resurgence could be enough to earn the veteran a major league deal this winter despite his weak pitching season. The Cubs are smart enough to fit the right-hander because of their pursuit of bullpen help this winter. Although he doesn’t have the same impact as other players Chicago has expressed interest in this winter Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Ryan Presslyagain David Robertsonthe team’s preference in recent years has been to focus its attention on bullpen restoration projects like Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr. again Jorge Lopez. They’ve had some success in that area, and if they choose to dip into that free agent pool again rather than sign a more reliable late-inning option Stanek’s speed and previous track record should make him an attractive option.
As for Atlanta, the club has never been shy about paying for quality relief talent. The Braves’ bullpen mix for 2025 is already in shape Raisel Iglesias, Pierce Johnsonagain Aaron Bummer in the late innings but the loss Joe Jimenez for most if not all of the 2025 campaign due to offseason surgery has left room for another veteran arm. Atlanta was previously involved in the market for Scott before he signed with the Dodgers, but they have since signed Jurickson Profar with their foreign mix and any money left in the budget may be better given to cover the lost rotation Fried Max again Charlie Morton in free agency this winter. That would make Stanek an attractive and affordable option for the club to roll the dice on.
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