In the past year, two official bombshells have put India’s growing relationship with the United States to one of its biggest tests yet.
While the two sides announced an unprecedented increase in defense and technology, US prosecutors accused Indian government agents of conspiring to kill an American citizen on US soil.
Months later, the Justice Department filed fraud and bribery charges against a prominent Indian businessman, whose businesses have soared to extraordinary heights thanks to the power of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
However, the relationship is stuck. After decades of suspicion between the two countries, said Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, the fact that now nothing seems to disturb their relationship is a testament to their strength.
“I don’t think there is anything big enough to threaten America’s relationship with India,” Mr. Garcetti said Saturday in an interview at the embassy in New Delhi, two days before President Biden left office with Donald. J. Trump is sworn in as his successor.
“This is incredibly powerful and almost inevitable,” said Mr. Garcetti. “The speed and progress that is inevitable, like how fast we’re coming.”
The Biden administration’s downgrading of relations with India comes after nearly two decades of efforts to defuse Cold War-era tensions that led to US sanctions over India’s nuclear program in 1998.
Washington sees India’s growing power as a geopolitical counterweight to an increasingly assertive China. Already the world’s largest democracy, India overtook China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. India’s demographic advantages and increasing technological capacity can help diversify global supply chains away from China, which is more important to the United States and other major countries.
Now comes the second presidency of Mr. Trump, with his first vision for America and threats of rising tariffs on trading partners. Although the leaders of many countries are surprised, Indian officials insist that they are not among them.
S. Jaishankar, the foreign minister, said India enjoyed a “good political relationship with Trump” that he hoped would only deepen. While attending the opening of the US embassy on Friday in the technology hub of Bengaluru, also known as Bangalore, Mr Jaishankar quoted Mr Modi as saying the two countries were overcoming “historic doubts.”
Mr. Modi enjoyed a strong rapport with Mr. Trump, which is an important factor because of the way the incoming president handles international relations. When Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Modi hosted him at a large gathering in his native Gujarat, and at a large gathering in Texas of the Indian diaspora – the most significant increase in Indian influence in American politics.
But some analysts warned that Mr. Trump and his way of doing things may pose a risk to India.
Two problems in particular will test the relationship, and probably soon. During the campaign, Mr. Trump criticized India as gaining an unfair advantage in trade by maintaining high tariffs. And India may enter the fray if Mr. Trump following through on his promise to deport large numbers of illegal immigrants.
Indians make up the third largest group of illegal immigrants in the United States, according to the Pew Research Center. If Mr. Trump sending a lot of Indians to his country, it would be a big shame for Mr. Modi.
Amita Batra, an economist and trade expert based in New Delhi, said India should see warning signs in Mr. His first administration was reserved.
“You can say that we get along well with Trump, we have an easy relationship with the United States, but the way Trump looks at it at some point is a completely different question,” said Dr. Batra at an event held at the Center for Social and Economic Development in New Delhi. “India should approach Trump 2.0 with caution.”
During the interview, Mr. Garcetti described the bilateral relationship as “very compelling, challenging and important” for both countries.
A former Democratic mayor of Los Angeles, Mr. Garcetti arrived in New Delhi in April 2023, after the mission had been without an ambassador for two years. His confirmation program has hit a wall due to allegations that he ignored complaints of sexual harassment by his aide during his tenure as mayor.
He made up for lost time with bursts of energy and political-like communication on the campaign trail.
He was everywhere, from cricket grounds to restaurants to cultural events. Sporting a leather jacket, he even got behind the piano to open for jazz greats Herbie Hancock and Dianne Reeves, who had come to perform at the Piano Man Jazz Club in New Delhi..
But when Mr. With Garcetti trying his hand at dancing to a dangerous Bollywood song at the Diwali celebration, the relationship between the two countries had hit major hurdles.
In India, right-wing trolls seized on US allegations of Indian government involvement in a plot to assassinate an American citizen who advocates separatism in India. That, along with the US case of Gautam Adani, a business magnate, was proof that the United States was trying to dampen India’s inevitable expansion, say online nationalist voices.
The Biden administration appeared intent on dealing with the killing quietly with New Delhi, seeking accountability without allowing it to become a major diplomatic issue.
“On Capitol Hill, inside the White House, I think with those who know it was a real moment of reflection and pause,” Mr. Garcetti said of the murder case. “The momentum never stopped — you know, relations between countries are always multifaceted and at the same time not only between governments. But I think it was a quick gut check. “
Mr. Garcetti said the Biden administration was assured of India’s response. New Delhi has accepted America’s demand, he said, “not only for accountability but also for systemic changes and making sure this never happens again.”
An Indian government inquiry concluded last week recommended legal action against an unnamed person with “previous criminal links.” It said the action “must be ended immediately,” in what analysts see as an attempt to start the Trump era with a clean slate.
“If we want to cooperate in other areas that are important to us, intelligence sharing, etc., trust is the basis of everything,” said Mr. Garcetti. “But I’ve been amazed at how trust can deepen in the midst of a challenge.”
One question hovering over the deepening relationship between the two countries is whether India can really emerge as an alternative to China in global supply chains – something Mr. Garcetti also wondered the same thing.
India has reaped a smart share of its exports by moving away from China, with businesses preferring places like Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, where it’s easy to set up jobs and where prices are low.
Mr. Garcetti said India has made significant changes after opening up its economy only in the 1990s, years before China. He took his iPhone to show a recent achievement that has been widely highlighted: About 15 percent of iPhone production now takes place in India, a figure that could continue to grow rapidly, he said.
Broadly, however, India still struggles to attract foreign investment, despite infrastructure improvements and regulatory simplification. Manufacturing is not growing fast enough to bring India the jobs it desperately needs.
“When India leaves a lot of progress and jobs and growth on the table it finds a better way to make it less difficult and less controversial to invest here for export,” said Mr. Garcetti. “Because it’s still, you know, in most parts of manufacturing, one of, if not the, most taxed economies.”
“They’re not wrong to look at it and say it was 95 percent worse,” Mr. Garcetti said. “But if that 5 percent is still twice your competitor’s or 10 times your competitor’s – companies, you know, are like water. They flow where gravity takes them.”
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