Does Imran Khan’s conviction threaten the PTI government’s talks with the government of Pakistan? | Imran Khan News

Islamabad, Pakistan – When Omar Ayub Khan, the leader of the opposition and a member of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), presented the party’s manifesto to Ayaz Sadiq, the speaker of the National Assembly, on Thursday, it appeared that the long-standing rift between the government and the country’s most popular party could be resolved. in the end.

However, just 24 hours later, Imran Khan, the former prime minister and founder of PTI, was sentenced to 14 years in prison by an accountability court on charges of abuse of power and corruption.

The two sides began talks late last year on a number of contentious issues, including the release of jailed PTI leaders – the group calls them “political prisoners” – and dealing with allegations of fraud in last year’s election.

So far, three talks, chaired by the Speaker of the National Assembly, Sadiq, have taken place, where the PTI presented its list of demands at the last meeting.

The government is expected to respond to those demands within seven days. However, Khan’s conviction has reignited fears that the past three years of political turmoil could return, throwing Pakistan back into chaos as the country grapples with security and economic problems.

Aasiya Riaz, joint director of the independent Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), emphasized the importance of continuing the dialogue.

“Discussions aimed at achieving meaningful results, for the sake of the country, must continue,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Both sides, the establishment-backed government and the PTI, may return to their tactics of repression and agitation, respectively. This will create chaos and uncertainty, but ultimately they will have to return to the negotiating table,” added Riaz.

Once a favorite, now a pariah

Imran Khan was ousted in April 2022 by a parliamentary vote of no confidence. He has accused a conspiracy between Pakistan’s powerful military, his political rivals and the United States to remove him from office.

The military, considered the most powerful institution in Pakistan, has ruled the country for nearly three of the 76 years since independence. Although no prime minister in Pakistan’s history has completed his term, three of the four dictators have ruled for nearly a decade each.

Khan, once thought to enjoy military support, took power in August 2018 before stepping down.

Both the US and the military denied his accusations, but his ouster caused severe harassment of the PTI, where Khan led long marches and demonstrations, insulting the establishment, as the military is well known in Pakistan.

Things came to a head on May 9, 2023, when Khan was briefly detained in the Al-Qadir Trust case – a corruption case in which Khan was convicted on Friday.

His release within two days did little to end the unrest as PTI supporters attacked across the country, targeting public buildings, military offices and buildings, including the military headquarters in Rawalpindi.

Thousands of PTI members were arrested, and more than 100 were tried under martial law, and more than 80 were sentenced to three to ten years in prison. Khan also faces charges of sedition and “terrorism” related to those events.

Negotiation challenges

Despite setbacks, including Khan’s arrest in August 2023 and legal obstacles to PTI’s participation in the elections, the party’s candidates won the highest number of seats in the February elections.

However, with Khan detained, the PTI leadership held several protests in Islamabad, pressuring Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government to release him.

In November, the PTI launched a march to Islamabad, calling it a “last call”. Clashes with law enforcement broke up the march, and the PTI said at least 12 of its workers had been killed, a figure the government denied.

The PTI, in its list of written demands, appeared to back down from its insistence on the cancellation of the election results.

But the party urged the government to form two separate investigative teams, tasked with investigating the events of May 9, 2023, and November 26 – the date of the march to Islamabad – last year. It continued to insist on the release of its “political prisoners”.

Abuzar Salman Niazi, a member of PTI’s core committee, clarified the party’s stand.

“We are not asking for executive orders to release people. We want an end to legal interference. If a person is granted bail, he should not be arrested for a new crime immediately after that,” Niazi told Al Jazeera.

The talks will continue, Niazi added, noting that the current demands are just the beginning.

“The government was given the opportunity to act on these soft demands. We have other demands that we have yet to deal with, but this is what has to start, and we want to see the government take steps to start this investigation into the incidents of May 9 and November 26,” he added.

Aqeel Malik, the spokesperson for legal affairs in the government, said that he is also optimistic about ongoing negotiations, despite Khan’s conviction.

“Trials and negotiations are separate matters. We have seven days to respond to PTI’s demands, and the prime minister has formed a team to investigate them,” Malik told Al Jazeera.

Reconciliation or deadlock?

Some analysts believe that PTI’s demands represent a slowdown and give the government an opportunity to reconcile.

Ahmed Ijaz, an Islamabad-based political analyst, noted that the PTI’s abandonment of grievances over the February 2024 elections could facilitate negotiations.

“This allows the government to put itself in a position to maintain stability,” Ijaz said.

On the other hand, political analyst Fahd Husain said PTI’s demands seem “unrealistic” at present.

“The two commissions they are looking for are like indictments, and many issues related to them are already in court,” Husain told Al Jazeera.

Malik, the spokesman for the legislative government, stressed the need for clarification of PTI’s demands.

“For example, PTI says that political prisoners should be released, but they did not give us a list of what they mean. It seems to be an open matter, including people involved in the events of May 9 or November 26. So, I think this is still in the nascent phase, but we have seven days to deal with it,” he added.

“Good progress”

For the past three years, Khan has been accusing the military, especially the Chief of Army Staff, General Syed Asim Munir, of being the cause of his party’s woes.

Despite the military’s insistence that political talks are not its forte, the recent meeting between current PTI Chairman Gohar Ali Khan (no relation to Imran Khan) and Munir in Peshawar has raised eyebrows.

The PTI applauded the meeting as a “good development” and said it presented demands to Munir. However, military sources said the meeting was only focused on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s security.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a PTI-ruled province, borders Afghanistan and has seen a series of attacks by Pakistan blaming armed groups seeking refuge in Afghanistan.

But the government officials, who are also part of the talks, were angry about the “politics” of the meeting with the army chief.

“No direct talks are taking place without the government’s negotiating team,” Senator Irfan Siddiqui said at a press conference in Islamabad on Thursday.

Ijaz, an analyst based in Islamabad, considered the meeting important.

“Once negotiations with the army have started, the charges and conviction of Khan are no longer valid,” he said.

The way forward

But mistrust between the PTI, the government and the military could still derail the talks, analysts warn.

The consequences of that, PTI’s Niazi says, will leave the party with no other option but to resume its aggressive posture and enter a state of agitation once again.

“What other way do you think we can do, other than going back to the streets and protesting? We are trying to hold discussions keeping in mind the good of the country and society, but the responsibility lies with the government. They should show a bigger role to make the dialogue a success,” said the Lahore-based PTI leader.

However, Islamabad-based Husain said one hope that could turn things around in Pakistan would be signals from Washington, DC, where Donald Trump is expected to be sworn in as President on Monday.

“If Donald Trump’s administration intervenes, it would help PTI. Apart from that, the team seems to have run out of things,” he said.