What happens if TikTok is banned?

TikTok will be banned in the US on January 19 – unless the Supreme Court accepts a canal to keep legal bid from its Chinese owner, ByteDance, that doing so would be unconstitutional.

But even if the country’s highest judicial authorities agree with lower courts – and Congress – that the platform is a threat to national security, will that stop Americans from using it?

Will there be ways to get around the ban — or could president-elect Donald Trump find a way to stop the law he says he opposes, even if the courts uphold it?

And whatever happens to TikTok, who stands to benefit from the uncertainty clouding its future?

The most likely way the US could block TikTok is to order app stores, such as the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store, to make it unavailable for download in that region.

US lawmakers have already told tech firms to be ready to remove the app from their stores if the ban goes into effect.

That could mean that people will no longer be able to use legitimate ways to access TikTok – or it could mean that people who already have it will still have it on their phones.

Because the app will no longer be publicly available, new updates could not be delivered to US users – which would make the app buggy and, ultimately, unusable.

Not to mention that many updates are provided to fix security holes in the apps, so if TikTok stops receiving updates it could present hackers with millions of devices to target.

Of course, there are ways around such a ban.

There are already many videos circulating on TikTok informing users how to use a VPN (virtual private network) – a way to make it seem like you are in another region.

The region of the application stores can be changed on many devices, so anyone can access applications from other countries – although this can cause other problems, not to mention the violation of terms of service agreements.

It is also possible to install applications downloaded from the Internet by modifying the device – which may violate copyright law – and comes with its own risks. However, the government is also keen on this and is proposing to ban “internet hosting services” from giving people access to the app.

So if the ban takes this form it seems that those willing to use TikTok after it goes live will be able to do so – but it won’t be the experience they’re used to.

There are still other routes available to the government down the road – for example, after India banned TikTok in 2020, it ordered internet providers to block access to the app altogether.

And even if people use a VPN, there are still ways for TikTok to theoretically judge that someone is based in the US – and then show them a screen saying the app is not available in their country.

It remains to be seen whether TikTok will decide to help the government with its ban – but Reuters reports that it plans to do so.

A lawyer for TikTok has told the Supreme Court that he believes the app will “go dark” in the US unless it rules in its favour.

The complexity of this issue means that even experts are not clear on what to do next.

Professor Milton L. Mueller of the Georgia Institute of Technology – who filed a legal brief in support of TikTok – said the lack of information on how far the US can extend its enforcement authority makes it unclear what happens if the ban goes ahead. which is difficult to determine.

But he said what is clear is the impact it will have on users and the internet itself.

“It will completely legalize the isolation of the Internet by national or legal boundaries,” he said.

Trump has made it clear he is against the law – which will take effect the day before he returns to office – asking the Supreme Court to delay its implementation while he seeks a “political solution.”

His incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz told Fox News that the president-elect is looking for ways to “save” TikTok without a court order, saying that Americans’ access to the platform and their information will be preserved.

The exact way to do that is unclear, though – according to the Washington Post – another option being considered is for Trump to sign an executive order to suspend the law.

“I don’t want to get ahead of our top orders, but we’re going to create a place to put that deal,” Mr. Waltz said.

Another option would be for Trump to let the law stand but tell the Justice Department not to enforce it.

The government will effectively be telling Apple and Google that they will not be penalized for continuing to allow access to TikTok, meaning the law will remain in place but will essentially expire.

It is clear that firms may not be comfortable breaking the law even if it is said to be wrong – as it would require them to accept the president’s word that they will not face punishment.

So far, ByteDance is adamant that no sale of its prized asset in the US is on the table.

But will that change if it is actually banned — and when a president who prides himself on the “art of the deal” returns to the White House?

Potential buyers continue to follow – with Bloomberg News reports Tuesday that the company was eyeing a sale to billionaire Elon Musk, however TikTok has explained this as “pure fiction”.

Trump’s former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and billionaire businessman Frank McCourt are among those who have previously expressed interest in buying it.

Mr McCourt, the former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, said he had received $20 billion in verbal commitments from a consortium of investors to bid for TikTok.

There is an even more left – and less expensive – property that the owner is proposing.

The biggest YouTuber in the world is MrBeast he said now he is in a position to make a deal after having billionaires come to him about it.

Although it may seem like a joke, he has a significant financial incentive to try to save the app – MrBeast has more than 100m followers on TikTok.

TikTok says it has 170 million users in the US, who, on average, spend 51 minutes a day on the app by 2024.

Block TikTok or make it unusable and that creates a huge opportunity for its biggest tech rivals says Jasmine Enberg, an analyst at Insider Intelligence.

“Instagram Reels, owned by Meta, and YouTube Shorts, owned by Google, are a natural fit for users, creators and advertisers,” he said.

Facebook could also benefit, although Ms. Enberg says that, like all Meta platforms, controversial policy changes announced by CEO Mark Zuckerberg may reduce its appeal.

Users bring advertisers – so a ban would be a huge financial boost for those platforms.

“CEOs we spoke to confirmed that they would transfer their media dollars to Meta and Google if they could no longer advertise on TikTok – this is similar to the behavior we saw in India when they shut down TikTok in 2020”, said Forrester. chief analyst Kelsey Chickering.

Lemon8, which is owned by ByteDance, would have been an obvious place for people to follow the ban – but the law says it also applies to other apps owned or operated by the company. This means that Lemon8 will likely face being made unavailable in the US.

Other potential winners include Twitch, which made its name in hosting live streaming — a popular feature on TikTok. Twitch is best known for gamers, although it continues to grow with other content.

Some Chinese owned platforms, like Xiaohongshu – known as RedNote among its US users – has seen rapid growth in the US and UK.

However, some suggest that there is no existing app that can really replace TikTok, especially its TikTok Shop feature, which allows users to buy products directly from videos, and makes more money for American creators.

Craig Atkinson, CEO of digital marketing agency Code3, said there is no direct competitor that people can easily switch to – and notes that his agency is signing new contracts with clients to build TikTok Shop campaigns in late December.