India is increasing diplomatic ties with the Taliban as rival Pakistan loses power in Afghanistan

India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, met with Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in Dubai last week, making a strong step forward in bilateral relations.

Although India has been gradually increasing its engagement with the Taliban, the latest meeting represents the highest-level talks since the Islamist group took over Afghanistan in 2021. Most notably, this was the second meeting between the officials of New Delhi and Kabul in just two months, indicating that both countries are ready to increase diplomatic relations.

“We should not understate the impact of Pakistan’s rift with the Taliban on strengthening India’s relationship with the Taliban. New Delhi had already taken small steps to negotiate with the Taliban shortly after the Taliban returned to power, before tensions entered the Taliban’s relationship with Pakistan,” Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, told Fox News. Digital.

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In the talks, Messi emphasized the “historic friendship” and the “strong people-to-people connection” between the two countries. At the time, the Afghan foreign minister described India as “an important and economically important country in the region.”

According to a statement by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, the talks focused on strengthening bilateral relations, addressing security issues, engaging in development programs and improving humanitarian aid.

India is among several countries that are actively facilitating trade, aid and medical support to Afghanistan under the Taliban regime. The country, which hosts thousands of Afghan refugees, also pledged to provide “material support” for their return to Afghanistan.

“New Delhi’s outreach to the Taliban is driven by the idea that closer cooperation can help India better pursue its security and strategic interests in Afghanistan – and this includes strengthening trade and communication links and ensuring that India is not threatened by terrorists on Afghan soil,” Kugelman explained. .

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The talks also touched on developing trade through Chabahar port in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province. India has been developing the Chabahar port so that goods can bypass the ports of its rival, Pakistan. This strategic port, just across the border from Pakistan, would provide landlocked Afghanistan with another route to receive and send goods, bypassing Pakistan.

Afghan refugees living in Pakistan meet with India in Lahore, Pakistan, Feb. 28, 2019. (AP Photo/KM Chaudary)

A meeting between India and the Taliban could disturb Pakistan, which shares borders with both countries. India and Pakistan are long-time rivals, having fought three wars over Kashmir since both countries gained independence in 1947. The meeting also took place between the Taliban regime and Pakistan, once considered friendly neighbours, as cross-border violence escalated.

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The talks took place days after India “unequivocally” condemned Pakistan’s airstrikes in Afghanistan in late December. These rare airstrikes have resulted in the deaths of many people, including women and children. Pakistani officials say the strikes were aimed at the Pakistani Taliban. Islamabad often accuses the Pakistani Taliban of using Afghan territory to attack Pakistan, a charge Kabul denies.

People gather at the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, in Chaman, Pakistan, August 11, 2021. (AP Photo/Jafar Khan)

The diplomatic spat followed the Taliban’s appointment of an acting ambassador to the Afghan embassy in Bombay in November, the same month India’s foreign ministry’s joint secretary visited Kabul. Although no foreign government, including India, has officially recognized the Taliban regime since it came to power in 2021, India reopened its embassy in Kabul less than a year after the Taliban returned to power.

“Islamabad has seen its relationship with its former Taliban asset become increasingly vulnerable,” Kugelman said. “Now it will have to face the fact that its rival India may fill the void created by Pakistan’s departure from the Taliban. No matter how you cut it, this is bad news for Pakistan everywhere.”

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There are several factors, in addition to the deterioration of relations with Pakistan, which may have led India to strengthen its relations with Afghanistan. The weakening of Iran, due to conflicts in the Middle East and internal affairs, has reduced its influence on the Taliban. At the same time, Russia, one of India’s closest allies, is looking to recognize the Taliban government in Afghanistan, even calling this group a partner in the fight against terrorism. Moscow sees a major security threat from Islamist groups in all countries from Afghanistan to the Middle East, especially after the loss of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Hundreds of people gather near a US Air Force C-17 transport plane at the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Aug. 17, 2021. (AP)

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China is also increasing its ties with the Taliban, making India wary of Beijing’s growing influence. Additionally, India’s approach may be influenced by President-elect Trump’s return to the White House. The Trump administration initially violated the US-Afghanistan withdrawal agreement. Trump’s re-election could now bring new dynamism to the region, enabling India to protect its long-term interests.

In contrast, the United States has severed diplomatic ties with Kabul since its chaotic withdrawal from war-torn Afghanistan. Washington maintains a policy of sanctions and isolation of Taliban leaders. But now, countries in the region are assessing the effects of the new Trump administration on the Taliban.