MLB Mailbag: Lux, Giants, Orioles, Rockies, Blue Jays

Today’s mailbag comes in at Gavin Lux trade, Yankees pitching, Giants ability to add bat, how Orioles could trade for top star, what Blake Street Bombers Part 2 could look like for Rockies, why other free agents aren’t coming. Toronto, why aren’t the Astros getting more flak in the trade Kyle Tuckerand more.

Kyle asks:

What are your thoughts on the Lux to Cincinnati trade? As a Mariners fan I’m pissed they won’t beat the Reds offer (M’s have comp A pick #33, Reds traded #37 and Lux ​​prospect). Are the M’s too dangerous?

Leonard asks:

I heard on MLB TV that the Reds really like to use the versatility of Gavin Lux to play multiple positions. Isn’t that one of the reasons why the Dodgers traded him? (Except for the abundance of middle players). Lux rating is 2B. He couldn’t throw SS. He hasn’t shown he can play 3B or OF well enough, either. Comments?

Jeff asks:

After the Gavin Lux trade, how much playing time do you think there is? Noelvi Marte are you getting this year?

Dante asks:

Do you think the Lux trade to the Reds anticipated another move, something like a trade from deep infielder Luis Robert? I understand the desire to add good players, but it seems like they have accumulated a lot of players inside, and the team seems to need a pop in the middle of the lineup.

Elliott asks:

After the acquisition of Gavin Lux, who is the best fit for the Reds’ next move? Maybe a right-handed hitting outfielder this time?

Colin asks:

I’ve always liked Gavin Lux even though he hasn’t developed into the star he was destined to be. That said, I wonder if a trade paves the way Mookie Betts to return to his natural position of second base when Rojas and Kim split the job at short? I would also note that it clears a roster spot for Sasaki, if they are lucky enough to sign him. Your thoughts?

Jason asks:

What can you do with a Gavin Lux trade? Did the Dodgers have enough of him or did they like it Alex Freeland enough to meet Kim?

Lux is a 27-year-old second-team player. He saved his season with a hot streak that spanned from July 11 to September 4. During that time, Lux posted a whopping 181 wRC+ in 161 plate appearances. He then posted an 80 wRC+ in 62 plate appearances throughout the regular season, adding another 43 postseason PA with a .177/.286/.294 line.

Before his eight-week hot streak, Lux was one of baseball’s top ten hitters in a span of 264 plate appearances. On the season, Lux was mostly protected against left-handed pitching, facing southpaws just 10.3% of the time. That’s for good reason – he posted an absymal 17 wRC+ against lefties in those 50 PA.

In comments on MLB.com, Reds president of baseball Nick Krall pointed to this Oct. 4 article from Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs to help explain Lux’s second-inning efforts to swing hard and do damage big. Lux’s changes were real; it is clear that he started swinging with power. You can read more about those changes in this August 8th article from Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic.

Lux has a 108 wRC+ against righties over 1,210 plate appearances in his career. An eight-week streak isn’t enough to convince me he’s changed, especially since he struggled again in his final 105 PA of the season.

All that said, Lux is a 27-year-old former first-rounder. There’s upside here where swinging hard leads to a 120 wRC+, he holds his own against lefties like he did in 2022, and he becomes a 4-5 WAR player and a borderline superstar. Maybe he can fit in more positions than second base, too. I don’t think the Reds are likely to get that out of him when the Dodgers can’t, but maybe being back in the midwest and out of the limelight will help.

Defensively, Krall said Lux ​​will play second base, outfield, and DH, and the team will “look” at third base and shortstop. Lux had trouble making throws from shortstop; it’s hard to see how third base could be any better. He showed seventh percentile arm strength this year, perhaps dominating right field. Lux moved into left field as recently as 2022, so I could see him getting some time there. The idea that the Lux has evolved beyond what it was at the time Jurickson Profar could not find position. So yes, I agree with what Leonard said in his question above.

As a second baseman, Lux was slightly below average in Statcast’s OAA this year. So I believe what the Reds have in Lux is an affordable two year platoon second baseman who needs to sit on the bench 27% of the time but can put up a 108 wRC+ against the righties. That’s a useful player.

But what if I told you there’s a free agent, and he’s controllable for two years, who can sign for $3.5MM and can do things like Lux, but has also shown that he can play third base well?