Reports last month from MLB.com’s John Denton revealed that the Red Sox, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, and Angels were the six (and possibly only six) teams. Nolan Arenado he was willing to waive his no-trade protections to join, if the Cardinals made an acceptable trade with any of these clubs. Four weeks after that initial report, Boston remains Arenado’s “preferred destination,” according to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam. What is unknown, however, is how close the Red Sox and Cardinals are to a deal, or if the Sox are motivated to bring Arenado to Beantown.
Acquiring Arenado would address several major needs on Boston’s offseason shopping list. A baseball executive Craig Breslow reiterated earlier this week that the Sox wanted to add “the right-handed bat comes out of the middle of the range,” given that the team is struggling with left-handed hitters. Bringing one of the best third basemen ever to Fenway Park would immediately help Boston’s subpar defense, and Arenado would be reunited with his good friend and former Rockies teammate. Trevor’s story.
The first deterrent, the fact that the Red Sox already have a third star Rafael Devers. While Arenado has indicated he’s open to switching positions in the right situation and Devers’ agent said flatly in November that his client was settling for third base, it’s hard to believe Arenado will move away from the hot corner. leaning on the weakest player in Devers. If the trade were to happen, Devers would likely be the new first baseman or DH, though this creates some controversy. Places to stay in Triston Casas again Masataka Yoshida.
Both of those players, however, have been mentioned in trade talks this winter, even in other trade talks. Casas is the most important trade item of the two, and while Breslow says “of course we don’t buy him,” that doesn’t mean Casas is closed. Indeed, Cotillo and McAdam wrote that “there remains a belief in the industry that the Red Sox remain open to trading Casas, possibly a rookie, to facilitate the running of the system.”
It’s possible that the Sox are looking to trade Casas first before making any other moves, as their leverage in a Casas deal would be diminished if the Red Sox create a position logjam up front. Trading Casas as a vehicle to clear the payment space is certainly not something Breslow likes, which is why the aforementioned effort to link Yoshida and Casas together was still part of the delivery effort. Luis Castillo from Seattle to Boston.
Payroll is also a big factor in any Arenado trade, as the third baseman is owed $74MM over the remaining three seasons of his contract. Between the waivers and the $10MM cap hit by the Rockies, Arenado’s current contract value is reportedly running at $60MM. The Cardinals’ biggest incentive in trading Arenado is to move as much money as possible, and the proposed deal with the Astros that Arenado blocked would have seen Houston take either $45MM (according to Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of the Athletic) or $59MM (according to Jeff Passan of ESPN) for a figure of $60MM.
In theory, the Red Sox could absorb the entire contract and still stay under the $241MM tax cap, as RosterResource estimates Boston’s current tax number at just under $212MM. It remains unclear exactly how much payroll Breslow has been allocated this winter, as while the Sox have made overtures to several top agents, their spending has been relatively low thus far. The Red Sox could convince the Cardinals to take on a larger portion of Arenado’s salary (or at least closer to $45MM) if better prospects are offered in return. Chaim Bloom’s involvement in this speculative trade is an interesting alliance, as the incoming president of St. Louis of baseball operations who has extensive knowledge of the Boston farm system due to his past as the Red Sox CBO.
Trading Arenado would come at a lower cost than signing Alex Bregmananother top third baseman still on Boston’s radar. That said, the Red Sox are known to be making a run at Bregman, who has some sort of relationship with the Sox manager. Alex Cora (from their days together in Houston) and his longtime friend Walker Buehlerwho just signed with the Sox himself before Christmas. Buehler recently told Cotillo and other reporters that even in his short time in a Sox uniform, “I definitely pitched everywhere [Bregman] to come to Boston.”
Turning to other Red Sox targets, it is unknown if Boston is still one of the teams being considered Roki Sasaki. Earlier this week, Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe updated reporters on his client’s search for a Major League team, and he didn’t give any indication that the right-hander is done with in-person meetings with interested clubs.
The Red Sox were not one of the seven teams known to have spoken with Sasaki already, and word has not come out if a meeting has been scheduled or has already taken place since Wolfe’s last press release. As of yesterday, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reported that the Sox did not they were “told they were out” of running Sasaki’s services, so the situation is still up in the air.
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