December saw four of the six free agents on the annual list of the Top 50 MLB Free Agents come off the board. Left hand Blake Snell (#4) went to the Dodgers on the last day of November and shortstop followed Willy Adams (#5) and Juan Soto (#1), both of whom signed just before the Winter Meetings began. Fried Max (#6) is then signed during the Winter Meetings, too Corbin Burns (#2) signed with the Diamondbacks just before 2024 ended. That leaves one of the top six free agents on the board as we head into 2025: an infielder Alex Bregmanranked by MLBTR as the #3 offseason free agent at the start of the winter back in November.
In nine years in the majors with the Astros, Bregman made his mark as a two-time World Series champion, two-time All-Star, and winner of both the Global Glove (2024) and Silver Slugger (2019) awards at third base. While Bregman hasn’t been able to recapture the 8-win form he’s flashed in the years since, he’s remained an above-average regular in recent years: from 2022-24, Bregman slashed a solid .260/.349/.449 (127 wRC+) with 14.0 fWAR and 13.6 bWAR. A four-plus win average per year should make any player a legitimately sought-after asset in free agency, and Bregman does the same. The Red Sox and Tigers have often been linked to Bregman this winter, while other frontrunners of note include the Blue Jays, Mets, and Phillies. It is a market that appears to be strong, with many major market groups interested.
That being said, however, Bregman’s potential in free agency may not be as strong as it was a few weeks ago. The most obvious of the veteran services most of the winter was the Astros’ backup, but a merger between the sides appears to be off the table now that they’ve signed. Christian Walker and sold Isaac Paredes to cover the inner corners. Meanwhile, the Yankees seem to be distancing themselves from the top of the third market, as a report last week poured cold water on the possibility of the club landing Bregman in free agency or the Cardinals third. Nolan Arenado by trade.
Even other suitors who weren’t clearly excluded from Bregman may have seen their interest wane in recent weeks. One such team would be the Tigers, who were reportedly very serious about pursuing Bregman as recently as last week… Gleyber Torres with a one-year deal shortly thereafter. While the addition of Torres certainly doesn’t directly prevent the Tigers from signing Bregman again given their extensive payroll and the club’s unsatisfied third base situation, the addition of another right-handed reliever looks to ease the pressure. Tigers brass may have felt differently about adding Bregman.
Another wild card that may or may not be in Bregman’s favor would be the Phillies, who were reportedly interested in him earlier this winter. President of baseball Dave Dombrowski recently suggested the club could be done with a big addition, but those comments were followed shortly after Philadelphia swung a trade to acquire the left-hander. Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins. The Phillies may need to move on from the third baseman Alec Bohm before they seriously consider adding Bregman to their roster, though it’s worth noting that Bohm has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this winter.
Still, some of Bregman’s cheaters remain worthy of his services. The Red Sox have been among the most talked about teams in rumors this winter after taking over back to back in recent years. While the rumored pursuit of big-time free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes hasn’t borne fruit so far, they’ve found other ways to be aggressive and adjust their rotation to include it. Garrett Crochet again Walker Buehler. With the starting five seemingly settled, the club’s priority moving forward this winter figures to add a righty bat to the lineup who can improve the offense while providing balance to the club’s many lefty hitters. Bregman would fit that role perfectly, so it’s no surprise that the Red Sox were linked to him this winter.
The Mets and Blue Jays, have not seen their situations change much in recent weeks. New York seems likely to prioritize reuniting with the former Pete Alonso in addition to adding Bregman, who would step into third base and kick the youngster Mark Vientos from the beginning while possibly eliminating the possibility of a reunion between Alonso and the Mets. Still, it’s hard to find a better fit for the Mets than Bregman in their emergency search if they can’t close the void in negotiations with their longtime slugger. In Toronto, the addition of Andres Gimenez going to the club’s stadium will mean that Bregman’s signing is likely to push through Ernie Clement on the bench (at least to prevent trading of Bo Bichette), but the third baseman would be exactly the type of middle hitter the Jays have long hoped to pair with. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in their list.
As is often the case with high-profile free agents hitting the open market, Bregman’s price tag may give other teams pause about aggressively pursuing him. The outfielder appeared to be in the hunt for a $200MM contract in free agency this winter, and MLBTR’s own prediction before the start of the season was that he would receive a seven-year, $182MM deal. The price seemed to have the Astros and Yankees pursuing Bregman, and the Tigers also appeared unwilling to go to that level based on previous reports of their interest.
If interested clubs hope to land Bregman on a deal close to six years and the $156MM Houston is reportedly offering the third baseman or a short-term, AAV deal full of similar opt-outs. Carlos Correa signed when he left Houston a few winters ago, they will likely have to wait on his market until closer to the start of spring training. And the possibility that a “mystery team” will come in and get Bregman (as happened to Corbin Burnes last week) cannot be ruled out, either.
How will Bregman’s free agency play out? Will she come with her current boyfriend, or a different club? And will he reach the $200MM deal he seems to want, or end up regretting turning down Houston’s $156MM offer?
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