Since the exchange market is moving faster than any other free company, the number of unregistered startups is decreasing. Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and a potential release modification Jeff Hoffman they are top of the class. In addition, teams are evaluating pitchers who may be limited to one- or two-year contracts.
Max Scherzer may be more interesting for short-term targets. The future Hall of Famer was limited to nine starts and 43 1/3 innings during his final season with the Rangers. Scherzer has made it clear that he has no intention of retiring. He will return for his 40-year-old campaign in hopes of a healthier, more productive season.
On Bleacher Report live this afternoon, Jon Heyman suggested that Scherzer is drawing interest from four teams. Heyman pointed out that the market is “a little hot,” so it’s possible the three-time Cy Young winner could be off the board in the near future.
Scherzer opened the ’24 season on the injured list after undergoing back surgery last December. Nerve irritation in his throwing arm delayed his return until late June. Scherzer made eight appearances before returning to the shelf with shoulder fatigue. That kept him out until September. His season ended after the restart due to a strained left hamstring.
A pitcher battling multiple injuries, including back surgery, at age 40 will obviously raise concerns. Scherzer is just one season removed from starting 30 games and surpassing 160 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He had gone over 170 innings across a full schedule between 2009-21. Until last year, he had been incredibly strong.
Scherzer is always productive when he can pitch, although he is not at Cy Young’s level. He had a 3.77 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate between the Mets and Rangers in 2023. Last season, he allowed just under 4 runs in nine for a slugging percentage of 22.6%. Scherzer still has plenty of chases and hits per pitch. His 14.6% swing rate ranks fifth among starting pitchers with 40+ innings pitched. Only Blake Snell, Garrett Crochet, Logan Gilbert again Dylan Cease bats missed at a high rate.
With the possible exception of Flaherty, Scherzer arguably has the highest ceiling for next season alone of any undrafted starter. There is also a greater risk due to the recent increase in injuries. Scherzer will likely be limited to a one-year contract, so the long-term downside is limited, but he should command a solid salary.
Alex Cobb earned $15MM from the Tigers coming off a season in which he pitched 23 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He just turned 37 and doesn’t miss bats anywhere near the rate Scherzer does. It makes sense that Scherzer and his Boras Corporation representation would be aiming to hit Cobb’s money, perhaps to pursue a contract closer to $20MM.
Heyman’s report does not identify any parties involved in the bidding. Speaking of speculation, the Braves, Orioles, Blue Jays, Cubs, Nationals and Mets are among the teams with the cap space and desire to play short-term. Scherzer won’t sign with a team that doesn’t have a path to contention, but very few clubs are truly rebuilding right now. All teams except Colorado, Miami and the White Sox may feel they have a path to a Wild Card spot.
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