The Dodgers deliver Teoscar Hernández back on a three-year contract. The Republik Sports client is reportedly guaranteed $66MM, including a $23MM signing bonus. There is more than $23MM in deferred income, while the deal includes a $15MM team option for the 2028 season. The Dodgers have not yet announced the signing.
Hernández, 32, gets the three-year contract he wanted. The slugger had called a return to the Dodgers a priority after a big first season with the team. Hernández slashed .272/.339/.501 with 33 homers in 652 plate appearances. He carried that strong production into the postseason, hitting three longballs with a .250/.352/.417 slash over 16 games to help the Dodgers secure their second championship in five years.
This was a good result for a player on a cushion contract. Hernández reached free agency last winter on the heels of a midseason deal in Seattle. He had slashed .258/.305/.435 over 678 plate appearances as a Mariner Manager. As a result, Hernández didn’t get the lucrative long-term offer he was looking for. When the Red Sox offered him a two-year contract that would have come with $28MM guaranteed, he signed one season with a deferred salary of $23.5MM in an effort to renew his market value.
It couldn’t have worked out better for either side. Hernández had one of the best seasons of his career. He received his second All-Star nod and the Silver Slugger award while receiving MVP votes for the third time. Hernández established a new career home run average that matched his best years in Toronto. He has been an integral part of the tournament lineup.
A down year in 2023 looks like an anomaly. He’s not the only veteran hitter struggling in Seattle’s super-friendly home park. Hernández has been a hitter in four seasons since breaking out in 2020. Over the past five years, he owns a .274/.328/.493 batting line in nearly 2700 plate appearances. There will be a good number of hits, but few players hit the ball as hard as him. Hernández is an annual threat for 30+ doubles and at least 25-30 homers.
Hernández is the only key player the Dodgers fear losing in free agency. He will come back to join Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Tommy Edman again Gavin Lux with a full charge. The Dodgers added Michael Conforto a one-year, $17MM contract at the Winter Meetings. No other team can compete with the strength of the LA lineup.
The Dodgers are taking some risks from a defensive standpoint. Despite more arm strength and surprisingly strong athleticism, Hernández has never been ranked as a good defender. That continued this season. Defensive Runs Saved he scored three runs less than his 1308 combined innings between the outfield spots. Statcast rated him the hardest, estimating he was 11 runs below average.
Hernández likely won’t improve on a contract that runs until he’s 34. A good position would allow him to move to a designated player in the second or third year. That’s not an option on a team with Ohtani. The Dodgers are moving Betts to shortstop and will have Hernández and Conforto alongside Edman in the outfield. They will welcome a mediocre defensive unit to get a chance to stack up against good hitters.
Adding Conforto and re-signing Hernández blocks the path to everyday at-bats for the youngster Andy Pages again James Outman. The latter feels like a change for the candidate after a disappointing second MLB season. The Dodgers will likely have little inclination to move the 24-year-old Pages, who had a league average of .248 / .305 / .407 showing as a rookie. He still has a minor league option left, so they can start him in Triple-A if they don’t want to limit him to a fourth outfield job.
Page doesn’t have much else to prove to the Cubs, but the Dodgers have the resources to keep loading up. Other teams want to at least try to get rid of him in a trade, or LA would like to replace Conforto after next season. It’s signing Blake Snell and last Blake Treinen at the beginning of winter leaves the Dodgers without clear holes in the list.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Hernández would receive a three-year, $60MM deal. You will come in slightly above that forecast in greenback, although the postponement will reduce the current amount to some extent. The three-year, $66MM deal without waivers will come with a competitive balance fee of $22MM. Hernández’s number will end up being less than that. The specific pay structure, which has not yet been fully reported, will determine how MLB calculates the contract for tax purposes.
Including Hernández, RosterResource calculates the Dodgers’ luxury tax number at about $353MM pending clearance. More than $301MM represents the final phase of the sanctions. They are taxed at a rate of 110% on the final AAV. Re-signing Hernández could cost them more than $40MM next year after taxes. The Dodgers were not deterred by CBT as they pressed for a repeat.
Hernández rejected the qualified offer. Other teams would have to give up draft picks to sign him. The Dodgers are only giving up the right to receive compensation for the 2025 pick, which would come after the fourth round. The Blue Jays and Red Sox have also been linked to Hernández this winter. Those clubs (especially Toronto) can turn to them Anthony Santanderstands as a senior undrafted foreign player. Jurickson Profar he’s a notch or two below that as the best outfield bat.
Yancen Pujols first reported that Hernández and the Dodgers were finalizing a three-year, $66MM deal. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo confirmed that a deal is in place. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported a $15MM option for 2028, plus a signing bonus and an estimated $23MM in carryovers.
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