The Red Sox agree with the right-hander Walker Buehler on a one-year contract worth $21.05MM, according to a report from Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports. The deal is still pending and includes benefits that could increase the value above the aforementioned amount.
It’s an interesting amount for Buehler, as the $21.05MM guarantee matches that of the Qualifying Offer. Both Buehler himself and the Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta considered borderline candidates for QO extension in early winter. In the end, the Dodgers declined to extend that offer to Buehler while the Red Sox made Pivetta but were denied. From a financial and roster perspective, today’s deal allows Buehler to get the same guarantee he would have if the Dodgers extended QO to him while allowing Boston to add a veteran right-hander to its small rotation on a flashy one-year deal. who gave them to Pivetta last month.
The 30-year-old right-hander was among the most talented young starters in his rookie season back in 2018, and posted an impressive 2.82 ERA (146 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP over four seasons from 2018-21. . That streak ended with Buehler finishing fourth in the NL Cy Young Award back-to-back voting. Corbin Burns, Zack Wheeleragain Max Scherzer in a race that seemed to strengthen his position as one of the best aces in this league. However, that career path was shelved at the start of the 2023 season. Buehler pitched to a pedestrian 4.02 ERA (101 ERA+) in 12 starts for the Dodgers that year before going on the injured list in June and eventually requiring Tommy John surgery.
Buehler wouldn’t return to the big league mound until May of 2024, almost two full years later, and he struggled badly when he returned. More injuries have limited Buehler to just 16 starts for the Dodgers this year, and even when he takes the mound the right-hander has struggled. Overall, Buehler pitched to a 5.38 ERA (72 ERA+) with a 5.54 FIP in his final regular season in a Dodgers uniform. That being said, the righty was able to finish his season on a positive note with a solid 3.60 ERA during the club’s run to the World Series this year. After a brutal start against the Padres in the NLDS, Buehler fired ten scoreless frames between the NLCS and the World Series while striking out a third of his opponents.
That combination of a strong postseason, a bad regular season, a tough injury history, and an outstanding record made Buehler one of the most intriguing free agents on the market this winter and perhaps the highest-risk, highest-reward signing. To achieve that, it is perhaps not surprising that he gained interest from a large number of teams. In addition to the Red Sox, Buehler also received interest from the Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Athletics, and Braves this winter. That widespread interest made it apparent earlier this winter that Buehler might exceed the one-year, $15MM deal MLBTR predicted would come as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, with Buehler ranked as #. 37 free agents this winter. It even seemed to open up the possibility that the right-hander could make a mutli-year deal by opting out; while he finally settled on a straight one-year deal, his $21.05MM salary in 2025 is probably healthier than what he would receive annually on a multi-year deal.
For the Red Sox, the addition of Buehler adds another arm with plenty of upside to an already loaded rotation. If Buehler can return to the form he showed early in his career, he will form a tough second in Boston’s lefty rotation. Garrett Crochet and right users Lucas Giolito again Tanner Houck combining to create a formidable quartet. The additions of Crochet and Buehler further deepened the team, as did right fielders Brian Bello, Cutter Crawford, Richard Fittsagain Cooper Criswell they will all be in the starting line-up again after being key pieces of the club’s rotation last year. Further down the depth chart, the Red Sox also boast some interesting upside Quinn Priester again Michael Fulmer.
Buehler’s addition brings the club’s 2025 cap hit to just over $175MM, according to RosterResource. This figure is too high for luxury tax purposes, however, sitting just under $212MM. That leaves the club with about $29MM to work with before going over the first luxury tax threshold. The Red Sox last passed that initial limit in 2022, but there was no evidence from club brass that the initial limit represented a hard limit on their spending during the club’s busiest time. With the rotation looking solid, it appears the team’s priorities will now shift to adding a right-handed reliever to their roster, even if that comes from an outfielder like. Teoscar Hernández or an infielder like Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado.
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