On December 17 the World Bank will vote to finance the Rogun mega dam project in Tajikistan. If the vote passes, it could make one of the Tajik state’s wildest dreams come true.
The $5bn Rogun project has been under development since the mid-1970s as a solution to the country’s chronic energy shortages. Since 2011, the bank has been promoting studies and evaluations.
Tajik President Emomali Rahmon said the operation was a “life or death” question. The project could have big consequences, but perhaps not the ones the president has in mind. Building the dam will displace more than 60,000 people and cause irreparable damage to the environment.
Tajikistan is widely known for its repression of dissent, suppression of freedom of expression, and suppression of society. It is a country where human rights defenders and journalists are routinely arrested and attacked, and police brutality is widespread.
As highlighted in the recent report “Financing Repression”, published jointly by the Coalition for Human Rights in Development, the Early Warning System and the International Accountability Project, in the case of Tajikistan, the concerns of the affected communities are at risk of not being heard because people are afraid to protest.
The World Bank, which is often scrutinized for the harmful effects of its projects, has over the years developed safeguard policies to ensure community involvement and participation in the activities it supports. But how can the right to participate be supported in a country with such a limited public space and in the context of a project where the military will be involved in providing “security”?
The fact that only international organizations are publicly considering the project and raising concerns, unfortunately, does not mean that local communities are not adversely affected. Although less than 25 percent of the construction work has been completed, more than 7,000 people have already been evicted. According to a 2014 Human Rights Watch report, resettled families have faced loss of livelihoods, reduced food availability, unreliable and inadequate access to basic services, and lack of adequate compensation.
In addition, the Rogun power project will have negative impacts on downstream communities and the environment. It is built on the Vakhsh River, a major tributary of the Amu Darya River that flows through Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Within Tajikistan, the dam project will affect the endangered sturgeon and the unique ecosystem of the floodplain downstream, including the “Tugay Forests of the Tigrovaya Balka”, a World Heritage Site in the Vakhsh River floodplain. It will also affect similar nature reserves downstream, in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Under the current proposal, the filling of the Rogun dam would also significantly alter the flow of water in the Aral Sea, an ecosystem already suffering one of the world’s greatest human-caused natural disasters.
Once the world’s fourth largest lake, the Aral Sea has nearly dried up due to a severely problematic water infrastructure and cotton production that was halted in the 1960s in Uzbekistan, then part of the Soviet Union.
The operation of the Rogun dam will also affect the seasonal patterns of water flow and its capacity to support related ecosystems, their biodiversity, and the livelihoods of communities in the already struggling Lower Amu Darya and its tributaries. The lack of water redistribution could fuel protests and border disputes in an already conflict-prone region.
Despite the obvious risks posed by the operation of a large new dam, initial impact assessments ruled out significant changes to the river’s flow. And since the downstream countries also have very restrictive conditions, there is great doubt that any meaningful stakeholder engagement can be done.
The Tajik government’s rhetoric that this is a “life and death” situation does not stand. There are alternatives to the current project that would provide the needed electricity and would not have the same environmental and human impacts.
Reducing the height of the dam could significantly reduce the number of people at risk of displacement, and the funds saved by reducing the project could be used to build efficient solar farms, thus diversifying the Tajik energy sector and avoiding over-reliance on hydroelectric power in the region. prone to severe drought due to climate change. A small project can also prevent serious environmental impacts.
In the 1990s, the World Bank itself led the establishment of the International Commission on Dams. In 2000, the commission issued a damning report that clearly shows how large dams can harm people and the environment, and why alternatives to any large dam proposal should be carefully considered in the first place.
However, with the recent push for fossil fuel depletion, large dams have been able to find renewed support. Despite the fact that some of them emit more greenhouse gases than fossil fuel plants, dams are encouraged as climate-friendly projects and development banks also invest heavily in them.
The World Bank still has the option to freeze the proposed investment and require a new impact assessment, including other proposals. Now is the time for the bank to think about the mistakes of the past, listen to the civil society, and change the investment to smaller projects where the possible damage can be sufficiently reduced. If not, the dream of a big dam will turn into a nightmare for people and the environment in Tajikistan and beyond.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
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