It’s no secret that the Tigers are looking to improve their rotation during the offseason, and three more targets for the team have emerged. According to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, the Tigers are showing interest in right-handers Walker Buehler again Kyle Gibson and the left hand Andrew Heaney.
Buehler is the biggest name of the three. Despite coming off a tough, injury-riddled season, he was an ace-caliber player when he was last healthy in 2021. Indeed, from 2018-21, he pitched to a 2.82 ERA and 3.56 SIERA over 564 innings. His 14.4 FanGraphs WAR ranked 14th among all pitchers in that span. Still just 30 years old and another year removed from Tommy John surgery, he is widely considered one of the best running backs on the free agent market. It helps that his offense looks good in the postseason. After a rough outing in the NLDS, he pitched 10 scoreless innings between the NLCS and the World Series.
Of course, because Buehler comes with more than Gibson or Heaney, he may be looking at a long-term commitment. The MLBTR staff predicted a one-year, $15 million contract for Buehler at the start of the offseason but noted that a two-year opt-out deal was possible. Petzold also noted that Buehler may want a two-year deal out this winter, and suggested it may be more than the Tigers are willing to offer. Ideally, they are looking to offer a one-year deal.
In that case, Detroit could turn to Gibson or Heaney. Of the two, Gibson seems more likely to sign a one-year contract. Both pitchers appeared on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list: Heaney at no. 25 and Gibson at no. 41. Our staff predicted a two-year, $24 million deal for Heaney and a one-year, $13 million deal for Gibson. Gibson’s slightly higher AAV projections reflect his long record of success, but at 37 years old, it’s unlikely he’ll command a multi-year contract. Heaney, on the other hand, is still young enough (he’ll turn 34 next June) to fulfill a two-year commitment, especially in a market that has been kind to middle-class starters thus far. Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montasagain Matthew Boyd all signed for more guaranteed money than MLBTR predicted.
Gibson and Heaney are both coming off the same 2024 seasons. Gibson made 30 starts with a 4.24 ERA and 4.44 SIERA, while Heaney made 32 appearances (31 starts) with a 4.28 ERA and 3.95 SIERA. Heaney’s base numbers were less promising — he had a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate — but Gibson has been consistent and durable throughout his career. In the end, they both manage to restart the cycle but not much. Even if it raises Detroit’s bottom, it also won’t do much to raise the team’s ceiling.
If a pitcher like Gibson or Heaney is the only starter the Tigers add, they’ll need to hope some of their younger arms step up to help the ace. Tarik Skubal at the top of the rotation. That includes Reese Olson, Casey Mizeand expectations can be high Jackson Jobe. Additional arms that could make the rest of Detroit’s starting staff include Keider Montero, Matt Manningagain Kenta Maeda. In other words, this team is not short on back-end depth. They could really use a proven, postseason-caliber starter. However, such an achievement seems very unlikely. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon, the Tigers are “interested” in reuniting with Jack Flahertybut the word “others” speaks volumes in that report.
Ultimately, without a postseason appearance in 2024, it appears the Tigers don’t plan to be particularly aggressive this winter. As Petzold points out, their interest in signing a one-year contract reflects their strategy over the past two seasons, in which they signed. Michael Lorenzen and Flaherty. No doubt it paid off in both cases; Lorenzen and Flaherty both pitched well in a few months with Detroit before being traded prospects at the trade deadline. However, the Tigers were still in the middle of a rebuild when they signed Lorenzen before the 2023 season and Flaherty before ’24. That’s not the case anymore, so it’s strange to see them still looking for shortstops instead of trying to sign a high-impact pitcher to a multi-year deal.
By the same token, Petzold suggests the Tigers are interested in the first baseman Christian Walker but he says they may back down if “major market groups” submit their requests. In addition, Petzold adds that they are unlikely to sign any free agents who reject qualifying offers. Walker is among that group. While the Tigers have been linked to Alex Bregman, who also received a qualifying offer, Petzold writes that they would likely pursue him only if he was available in spring training and his price tag came down. As with Walker, the Tigers are interested but don’t want to get into a bidding war. In other words, it seems they would only agree to sign a QO free agent at a huge discount.
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