The fall of Syria’s Bashar Assad is a significant blow to Iran and Russia, experts say

The dramatic collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves throughout the region and beyond, marking a dramatic turnaround after nearly 14 years of civil war. Assad’s rule, long supported by Russia and Iran, has come to an end, leaving his former allies scrambling to control the situation. The implications of these two mandates, and the wider regional and global situation, are profound.

Russia’s involvement in Syria has not only been about Assad, experts say. Gaining ground in the Middle East was a cornerstone of Moscow’s strategy, with the Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus serving as key strategic assets. However, with Assad gone, Russian assets in Syria are at risk.

Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst and author of “Putin’s Playbook,” emphasized the importance. “Syria has become a theater of conflict between Russia and the US. The loss of Assad represents a defeat for Russia, which has lost critical bases in the Middle East and stretched its military resources as they continue to fight in Ukraine.”

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Ksenia Svetlova, a non-citizen official at the Atlantic Council, described this disruption as, “Russia has been exposed for what it really is – a power that overpromises but fails. They came to Syria with big ambitions, but without helping Assad survive through joint efforts with Iran and -Hezbollah, they achieved little Post-war reconstruction did not start, and with Russia now focused on Ukraine, Syria became the priority now, Russia he abandoned Assad, and revealed himself as an unfaithful partner.”

He said this failure sends a message to Moscow’s allies. “In the Middle East, Russia now looks weak compared to the United States. The Syrian people are surprised that Moscow has left ‘Baby Assad,’ as the regime’s opponents call him, to fall, while the US has shown strength by standing firm with Israel at the right time. “

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visit Hmeymim Air Base in Latakia Province, Syria, on Dec. 11, 2017. (RUSSIA-FLIGHTS/ Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/ via REUTERS/File Photo)

Assad’s fall highlights Syria’s role as a battleground in the US-Russia proxy war, as Koffler explains. “Before the fall of Assad, President Trump reportedly called on Putin to de-escalate the situation, but instead, Putin doubled down on his nuclear doctrine, showing his refusal to back down. Now that Assad, one of Putin’s supporters, has lost Syria, the balance of power is changing dramatically. With this loss, Trump may have new power over Putin, as the loss of Syria undermines Russia’s influence in the region and disrupts the existing one It could pave the way for Trump to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and move away from a hardline position, leading Putin to push back on Syria.”

IRAN

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, meets with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 25, 2019. (OFFICE OF THE IRANIAN LEADER / HANDOUT/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

For Iran, the fall of Assad deals a serious blow to your long-term regional strategy. Syria has been a key link in Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance,” which links Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon and allows arms smuggling across the region through a tunnel from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon.

“This is an unprecedented, historic moment,” Svetlova said. “The Iranian ‘Ring of Fire,’ carefully constructed by Qassem Soleimani, has crumbled. If Soleimani were still alive, he would be horrified to see his life’s work collapse.”

The weakening of Hezbollah during its war with Israel made Assad more vulnerable, leaving the regime without critical support on the ground. Hezbollah was an important force that helped Assad’s army during the civil war, but after the heavy losses of the Israeli army, it could not provide enough support. Meanwhile, Iran has refused to send more troops to bolster Assad.

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Terrorists stand near the Iranian embassy with torn plaques of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and late Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qassem Soleimani after Syrian rebels announced they had ousted President Bashar al-Assad , Damascus, Syria, December 8. 2024. (REUTERS/Firas Makdesi)

An Iranian journalist, speaking anonymously to Fox News Digital Iran, shed light on the reaction inside Iran. “The majority of Iranians are celebrating the fall of Assad. For years, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard have been pooling resources to end the Axis of Resistance, destroying the wealth of the Iranian people. Now, with Assad gone, there is hope that the oppressive influence of Iran in the region it will weaken this time of happiness for those who have been against the government’s policies for a long time.”

“The Iranian people and the regime are worlds apart in terms of their views,” said one Iranian dissident who spoke on condition of anonymity to the country’s Fox News Digital. “Although the regime has been largely looking at the fall of Assad from the sidelines, possibly because of its internal weaknesses or strategic alliances, the Iranian people are celebrating. There is a wave of hope and joy spreading on social media, fueled by the idea that changes in the countries associated with the Islamic Republic – past or present – may caused a domino effect For many, the fall of Assad represents the strengthening of the resistance axis and a spark of opportunity for change within Iran itself.

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Rebels in northwestern Syria seized government military vehicles on the way to Kweris Airport in the eastern countryside of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. (Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto via APRami Alsayed/NurPhoto via AP)

While the fall of Assad creates opportunities for a new order in the Middle East, it also presents significant risks. The surprise attack by Assad’s forces, led by the Salafi-jihadist movement Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under the command of Abu Mohammed al-Golani, underscores the complexity of the situation. HTS, Syria’s most powerful rebel group, emerged from the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front but said it cut ties with the group in 2016. It is still designated as a terrorist organization by the US and other nations.

“Who will fill the void?” Koffler warned. “The rebels are not good people – they are the same extremists we have seen before. Although they may appear in the Western media wearing a green t-shirt and doing cool interviews, the reality is different. Removing one dictator often leads to very bad results, as we have seen in Iraq and Libya.”

Avner Golov, former executive director of Israel’s National Security Council and vice president at Mind Israel, believes there is potential for the US and Israel.

Fighters enter Rashidin district on the outskirts of Aleppo on their motorbikes with smoke billowing from behind during fighting on Nov. 29, 2024, as the jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and allied groups continue to attack in Aleppo province against government forces. (Photo by BAKR ALKASEM/AFP via Getty Images)

“The fall of the Assad regime emphasizes the failure of Russia and Iran as a power in the region. Meanwhile, the US has shown its strength by standing with Israel and choosing the winning side. This is an important opportunity for Washington to use its position and build a coalition of central Arab countries. – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt – and Israel, to fight both Sunni and Shia Islamist forces This alliance can provide stability in the region and combat the growing influence of extremist groups.”

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Golov said there are possible consequences for Beijing. “China has been largely absent from the conflicts in the Middle East, instead focusing on its economic goals around the world. In contrast, Russia has shown itself to be unreliable in Syria, retreating while the US supports its allies. This presents a unique opportunity for America to strengthen its position in the Middle East amid the collapse of Iranian axis.”