The Mets agree with it Clay Holmes with a three-year contract, a physical contract is still awaited. It’s a reported $38MM guarantee for Wasserman’s client, who can opt out after the second season. The Mets intend to use him as a first baseman.
Holmes, who turns 32 on Opening Day, is crossing town after three and a half seasons in the Bronx. He was an inconsistent pitcher for the Pirates between 2018-21. The Yankees, impressed by his flamboyant quality of the ball, acquired him at the ’21 trade deadline. That move wasn’t met with a lot of fans, but Holmes quickly erupted after delivering the blows.
Owner of a 4.93 earned run average at the time of the trade, Holmes pitched 28 innings of 1.61 ERA ball to start his Yankees career. He took over as Aaron Boone near the end of the following season. Holmes saved 20 games with a 2.54 ERA in 63 2/3 innings to earn his first All-Star nod in 2022. He followed with 63 frames of 2.86 ERA while picking up 24 saves.
Holmes is off to another strong start this year. He didn’t allow an earned run over 13 1/3 innings in late April. He had a productive May again, although he began to struggle with his command. That was a sign of a somewhat rocky summer. Holmes posted a 3.64 ERA in 30 appearances between the beginning of June and the end of August. Although his rate production wasn’t too bad, he gave up a lot of leads. In early September, the Yankees had him in the ninth inning Luke Weaver. Holmes finished the season in the setup role.
The 6’5″ righty finished the regular season with a 3.14 ERA in 67 innings. He struck out nearly a quarter of the batters he faced with a league-leading 8.1% walk rate. Holmes hit grounders at an excellent 65% clip. Far from a bad season, but he used to blow leads. While recording a career-high 30 saves, he was charged with an MLB-worst 13 saves. No other reliever has given up more than eight assists. He entered the postseason trending in the wrong direction after losing the shutout job.
To his credit, Holmes fired up again when the lights got brighter. He gave up just three runs in 12 postseason innings. While he fell behind Weaver in the bullpen division, he remained one of Boone’s most reliable setup options. Holmes scored five points without giving up a lead once in October.
That finish was a very fitting end to his strong run in the Bronx. While fans have been divided at times over his reliability, Holmes has posted good numbers in his Yankee tenure. Of the 86 relievers with at least 150 innings over the past three years, Holmes ranks 17th in ERA. While his 25.7% slugging percentage is in the middle of the pack, his 68.6% ground ball rate is #1 on that team.
There is no doubt that Holmes can be a productive reliever. The Mets believe he can be more than that. They will give him the opportunity to play a full role for the first time in his MLB career. Holmes has made four major league starts, all coming in his 2018 rookie season in Pittsburgh. That didn’t go well — he allowed a 7.80 ERA with more walks than strikeouts in 15 innings — but that’s no small feat. The Mets aren’t putting any stock in the small sample that preceded his breakout three years.
Like many MLB pitchers, Holmes was a first baseman in the minors. He’s not used to working long innings, but it will be a tough test against big league hitters. He will probably need to make adjustments to his vocal mix. Holmes has given up his changeup since moving to the bullpen. His 96-97 MPH sinker is his go-to offering, a pitch that is largely responsible for his big downfield numbers. Holmes used two different breaking balls – an 87 MPH slider and an 83-84 MPH offering that Statcast classifies as a sweeper.
Having three pitches is an advantage as Holmes tries to navigate the lineup two or three times with looks. However, he has never used the changeup or splitter that most starters have to deal with hitters who use different hands. Holmes has done well against hitters anywhere, but his strikeout and walk profile is even better when he catches a chance to play.
As a Yankee, Holmes held right-handed hitters to a miserable .203/.267/.284 line. He hit them at a whopping 31.7% clip against a systematic 6.2% walk rate. He struck out just 19.8% of opposing left-handed hitters while issuing a 9.8% walk rate. Holmes still held lefties to a slashing average of .235/.318/.307, but that will present more of a challenge as he works through the lineup more often.
Something is important if Holmes can make that change. Freedom from changing success stories has become increasingly common. Seth Lugo, Reynaldo López, Garrett Crochet and a former colleague of Holmes Michael King have become top rotation starters after spending most of their careers in relief. Jeffrey Springs, Jose Soriano again Zack Littell it looks like arms around the middle. It wasn’t all the same, though. Jordan Hicks he quickly ended when Zimnyama tried him as a player who started last season. The Marlins tried AJ Puk in circulation. They pulled the plug at the end of April after four bad starts.
Puk went back into the fold easily after the spin attempt was successful. That could happen to Holmes too. The Mets believe he can return to a setup role in front of him Edwin Díaz if he does not take the rotation. They will be paying a high but not unusual price to free up power in that situation. Robert Stephenson, Rafael Montero again Taylor Rogers they have signed three-year deals in the $33-35MM range in recent years. The Braves guaranteed López $30MM to sign him as a starter. Hicks, the youngest player on the team, signed a four-year, $44MM deal.
MLBTR predicted that Holmes would receive a three-year, $30MM contract that considered him a setup arm. The Mets are slightly more than that based on perceived looks as a starter. The exit gives Holmes a chance to reassess the market after two seasons. If he shows he can start, he could do very well in that return trip. There is evidence that starters have received lucrative three-year deals at age 34. Lugo signed for $45MM, and Yusei Kikuchi again Chris Bassitt each entered a $63MM contract.
Holmes is the Mets’ second rotation addition in recent days. They finalized a two-year, $34MM deal Frankie Montas on Wednesday. They have taken the top mid-market flyers so far – a strategy they used with great success last season Sean Manaea again Luis Severino. There should be other roundabout moves along the way. New York already lost Severino and got to see Manaea again Jose Quintana depart as free men.
Kodai Senga again David Peterson they may have secure rotation spots, but there is little certainty that a fifth spot could go to one of them Taylor Megill or Paul Blackburn at the moment. Senga has not put it together well this year, and Holmes may be on the innings limit. The Mets are still potential hitters with a similar high market arm Corbin Burns or Fried Maxalthough president of baseball operations David Stearns has not. At the very least, they will continue to target the target in free space.
The specific salary structure of Holmes’ deal has not been reported. There is an average annual value of $12.67MM for luxury tax purposes. According to RosterResource, that pushes their tax number to about $201MM. They could have $40MM of entry by next year’s starting limit. The Mets are very likely to exceed that CBT mark at some point this offseason, likely in the coming days as they await word from Juan Soto.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported that the Mets and Holmes were agreeing to a three-year, $38MM deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the opt-out clause and confirmed that the Mets will use Holmes as the starter, which Sherman first hinted at earlier this week.
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