@thenorthstarofninja Yes, of course.
Soto’s BWAR since his debut isn’t close to several of the best players in the game during their best 7-year streaks. It’s Goldschmidt, Arenado (whose 7-year streak is better than Soto’s 7-year career so far), Machado, Lindor, Marcus Semien, Freeman, Chapman, or Votto, not Betts, Judge, Ohtani, or Trout—and no one ever thought that the first eight should break the existing salary record or should pay as it turns out Ohtani was paid. here
Matt Chapman between 2018-2024 put up 35.2 bWAR to Soto’s 36.4 bWAR. Matt Chapman.
Or take Soto’s first three seasons, averaged over 3 full seasons—he still has the bWAR of Andres Giminez’s first three full seasons. There will be a huge financial cost to the GM who makes waves over those two skills and ignores the rest of the player.
Soto is a good two-tool player, obviously, but with the skills of older players, he’s slow, he’s not a great player, he’s a poor infielder at one of the easiest positions to fill, and he’s headed for the DH slot. That severely limits what his best years will look like, evidenced by how 2/3 of his 6 full seasons thus far have been limited to 5 WAR. Soto’s Miguel Cabrera is more (not that good), a three-tool player made after his age-33 season than one of the game’s half-dozen true superstars. …
Bobby Witt Jr. in his three full seasons has beaten Soto in his first six full seasons for best WAR, 9.4 to 7.9. So is Gunnar Henderson, 9.1 to 7.9 in just two full seasons, and in those two seasons GH has already amassed 42% of the value Soto has created in his career so far, 2018-2024. That only goes to show that as a two-tool player Soto is, his value is limited by only having those tools and being below average everywhere else.
Soto is an amazing player who should be paid like the first eight players in graph one, not like the best player in baseball—and it’s not even close.
Just for fun, non-HOFs (although a few will get in):
– Soto, 36.4 bWAR 2018-2024
= Chase Utley 49.3, 2005-2011
= Bobby Grich 39.9, 1972-1978
= Kenny Lofton 41.9, 1992-1998
= Keith Hernandez 39.9 WAR 1979-1985
= Jim Edmonds, 37.7 2000-2006
= John Olerud 33.7, 1996-2002
= Abreu 41.6, 1998-2004
= Carlos Correa 34.6, 2016-2022
= Ian Kinsler 34.1, 2009-2015
= Bernie Williams 37.0 1995-2001
= Will Clark 32.9 1988-1994
= Palmeiro 35.5 1993-1999
= Matt Holiday 33.5, 2007-2013
= Carlos Beltran 40.5, 2002-2008
= Billy Williams 36.5, 1962-1968
= Adrian Gonzalez 34.6, 2009-2015
= Brett Butler 32.7, 1986-1992
= Andrew 42.2, 1998-2004; 41.5, 1999-2005; 2000-2006, 40.0
= Jose Altuve 35.1, 2013-2019
= Dale Murphy, 37.2, 1982-1988
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