Present and Counted: A small majority of House Republicans would make attendance a priority

It has long been said that Congress is like a school.

What is the first thing they do at school? Get involved.

That’s one thing they do generally don’t do it in Congress.

But it could happen next year.

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Figuring out who’s in and counted and who’s out will emerge as one of the most dramatic daily events on Capitol Hill.

It’s always about the numbers on Capitol Hill.

But the 119th Congress will be indeed be mathematical.

Every day in the house will depend on who is sick. Who has a parent/teacher conference. Whose flight was delayed because of the snow. Who just plays hooky and dishonest. Who was giving the town talk, got caught in traffic and didn’t make it back in time. Whose child is playing in the school play. Who died.

President Trump and House Republicans have big plans for their 2025 legislative agenda. But the small size of the GOP majority could dampen your daily expectations.

It will be interesting to see what the Republicans can implement.

Republicans will likely start the new year with a 219-215 majority. So the seats are 434. There is one vacancy as former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., is resigning. That’s a four-seat limit. But in reality, it means the GOP majority can tolerate one renegade candidate per vote without needing help from the other side. The lone Republican “no” is 218-216. But the two Republican insurgents produced a 217-217 tie. By law, commitments are lost in the House.

But the start of the new Congress on January 3 could represent the Halycon days of the House Republican Conference.

Reps. Elise Stefanik, RN.Y., and Michael Waltz, R-Fla., intend to resign in January to join the Trump Administration. Stefanik is a United Nations Ambassador and needs confirmation of that post. The president-elect tapped Waltz to serve as National Security Advisor. That position is not subject to Senate confirmation. So the Republican majority will shrink to 217-215. At that time, Republicans cannot afford to lose any votes to pass their agenda.

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That’s a problem for House Republicans who always have a faction of defectors — from keeping the government open to even Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. This could spell trouble for House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., returning to the Speaker’s post. Johnson must win a majority of all House members voting when the new Congress convenes on January 3 to become Speaker. You will have a bit of a cushion when the new Congress begins. But it won’t be much. House Republicans are still suffering from political PTSD after 15 rounds of electing former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., early last year.

Yes. There will be a special election to fill the seats of Gaetz, Stefanik and Waltz. Gov. Florida Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) has called a special election for Gaetz’s seat for April 1.

You can’t fix these things.

US Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL) raises his hand on stage during the third day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 17, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Leon Neal/Getty Images)

Another special election is months away before Stefanik and Waltz resign. In fact, if Stefanik is confirmed and resigns in late January, it could be May before there is a special election to replace him – based on New York law and the understanding provided by Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York (D).

Results in special elections sometimes produce “special” results. Regular voters stay home from time to time and the opposite party captures those seats in foreign elections. So, even if these are “Republican” seats, there is no guarantee that the Republicans will automatically win.

But if things go according to plan, Republicans will have those seats in a few months, with a strong 220-215 majority. That means Republicans could lose up to two votes on any major issue.

But they are always absent. Regular wipes.

And this is not limited to the Republican side of the aisle.

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There have long been concerns about the health and existence of Rep. David Scott, D-Ga., the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee. Scott faced criticism earlier this year for his lack of public appearances and interviews.

76-year-old Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., is the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee. Grijalva vowed that this term would be the last after he succumbed to cancer. Illness shut Grijalva down for months. He missed more than 300 votes between February and this fall and did not do an interview.

Deceased Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Tex., Bill Pascrell, DN.J. and Donald Payne Jr., DN.J., were all in office when they died this year. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., died in 2023.

Democrats are making a lot of noise right now about President-elect Trump’s agenda. It will be incumbent upon the Democrats to be fully present to oppose the Republicans and generally make life miserable for many. But Democrats can only do that if they show up. Each time.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y., conducts his weekly news conference at the Capitol Visitor Center on Thursday, May 23, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

That was the case when House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y., had the votes of every House Democrat in every nomination for Speaker in January and October of last year. Only Rep. David Trone, D-Md., missed a few votes because he had surgery. But Trone returned to Capitol Hill later that night to vote.

Rep. Al Green, D-Tex., was hospitalized this past February. But Green came to the Capitol in a wheelchair in February to help the first attempt to impeach Mayorkas. The Republicans had three defectors on their side. Green’s new vote from the hospital gurney forced the GOP effort to falter and try again.

One challenge for the GOP was the health of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. Scalise was diagnosed with cancer last year and was out for the first half of 2023. Scalise is now on the mend. But his absence has hampered the GOP in big votes like Mayorkas’ first impeachment.

Unfortunately – and inevitably – there will be absences due to health. And God does not allow it, death. It’s rare for Congress to pass without a lawmaker dying — sometimes unexpectedly. Rep. Jackie Walorski, R-Ind., and two aides died in a traffic accident in the summer of 2022.

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So listen for the bells to go to the House next year. Check the weather forecast and flight schedule at Reagan National Airport. Better look for Waze when he flies to Dulles. See if the flu or another round of COVID is burning through Congress.

Yes. Understanding whether someone is for or against a given bill or amendment is always important to Congress. But what goes beyond that is whether they really exist.