The Angels have been the most aggressive team in baseball in the first month of the offseason, and they continued that pattern this morning by reaching an agreement with the left-handed pitcher. Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year contract worth $63MM, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
Kikuchi, 33, spent nine seasons playing for NPB’s Seibu Lions before being promoted to the major league teams ahead of his 28-year-old campaign during the 2018-19 season. The left-hander stayed with the Mariners in a complex contract that guaranteed the southpaw $56MM over four years, with the fourth year being a $13MM player option that the Mariners could pick up with a four-year club option worth $66MM. However, complicated that contract was, Kikuchi’s time in Seattle was disappointing and straightforward. The lefty struggled in his first two seasons in the majors, posting a 5.39 ERA and 5.17 FIP between the 2019 and ’20 seasons.
He was able to turn things around a bit in 2021, however, with a 4.41 ERA (96 ERA+) and a 4.61 FIP. While those numbers aren’t flawless on the page, Kikuchi was an All-Star in 2021 and looked dominant at times, with a 2.33 ERA and a 27.5% strikeout rate in 11 starts from late April to early July. Kikuchi took a gamble and entered free agency despite his uneventful season. That decision paid off, as he would eventually sign with the Blue Jays on a three-year, $36MM contract. His time in Toronto started much like his stay in Seattle, as he struggled badly in 2022 to the tune of a 5.19 ERA and 5.62 FIP in 100 2/3 innings of work split between the bullpen and rotation.
The lefty finally found things at age 32 last season, however, and showed the consistent, middle-of-the-rotation production that both the Mariners and Jays dreamed of when they signed him. In 32 starts for Toronto in 2023, Kikuchi pitched to a solid 3.86 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate against a 6.9% walk rate. That strong campaign proved to be the catalyst for another steady season in 2024, though he also had some ups and downs. Kikuchi’s time in Toronto this year saw him underperform in his primary metrics, as he pitched to a lackluster 4.75 ERA despite his 26.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate both being improvements over last season. Despite that poor ERA, the lefty had a 3.66 FIP, 3.51 SIERA, and 3.43 xFIP during his 22 starts with the Blue Jays this year.
Those borderline fun things certainly helped convince the Astros to pack the kids Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfidoagain Is Wagner in a trade with the Jays that brought Kikuchi to Houston long term. That was a big price to pay for a rental, but the lefty made good on his price with an incredible ten starts for the Astros following the trade deadline. He pitched 60 innings of 2.70 ERA ball, struck out 31.8% of opponents while walking just 5.9%, and improved his overall season numbers to a league average 4.05 ERA with a 3.46 FIP that was good for a 16th-best mark the most among all professional major leaguers this year, ranking well among the top free agent starters Fried Max (3.33) and Jack Flaherty (3.48).
Now, the Angels are betting on those good peripherals just like their division rival in Houston did this summer. In the middle of busy November when they already hit the morning Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Newmanagain Kyle Hendricks through trade and free agency, the club is now out of its comfort zone to sign Kikuchi in the biggest guarantee the Angels have ever given a first-time right-hander. CJ WilsonFive-year, $77.5MM contract in 2011. Kikuchi is just the second starter the club has signed to a multi-year deal since then, joining a future rotation-mate. Tyler Anderson. Kikuchi, Anderson, and Hendricks will form a veteran nucleus of Anaheim’s starting pitching staff next year that can help take the pressure off small arms like Reid Detmers, Chase Silsethagain Jack Kochanowicz.
While Kikuchi’s up-and-down performance may cause his new deal to raise eyebrows, the deal is well in line with the $60MM over three years that MLBTR predicted he would be in our annual list of the top 50 MLB free agents. Kikuchi is ranked 12th overall and 6th among starters on that list, which puts him firmly behind top-tier arms like Corbin Burns, Blake Snelland Fried but in the same conversation as southpaw Sean Manaea among the better mid-tier options on the market. Notably, Kikuchi was not held to a Qualifying Offer after being made ineligible by the midseason trade that sent him to Houston. That made him very attractive to an Angels club that has relied heavily on the draft in recent years while pursuing young speedsters. Nolan Schanuel, Zach Netoagain Ben Joyce to the upper ones.
Before signing with Anaheim this morning, Kikuchi had been linked to the Cubs in free agency as the club appears to be planning to focus on the middle tier of the starting market this winter by selecting non-QO pitchers. The Braves and Rangers are among the other teams rumored to be shopping in the same segment of the market, and any team that misses out on Kikuchi should still have a few options at their disposal this winter. Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi, Matthew Boydagain Andrew Heaney are among the pitchers left undrafted by QO who are expected to receive multi-year deals, as well as interesting one-year options such as Walker Buehler again Max Scherzer and sit at the table.
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