AAfrican leaders may be quick to congratulate Donald Trump on his election, saying they want a mutually beneficial partnership, but there is little expectation that his presidency will change things in this continent of more than 1.4 billion people.
After Trump’s victory, Kenya’s William Ruto said his country was “ready” to deepen its relationship with Washington. Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu spoke of Trump’s second administration ushering in an era of “sincere, beneficial, and reconciliation” cooperation.
Still, observers say African countries – once described by Trump as “empty countries” – will not be at the top of his to-do list.
Read more: How Asia Is Facing Trump’s Second Term
Low priority or even anxiety?
US foreign policy has not made Africa a priority for a long time—more than seeing the continent through the eyes of rivals like Russia and China, said Charles Ray, chairman of the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Africa Program.
President Joe Biden has talked about Africa as an important partner, said Ray, who served as the US ambassador to Zimbabwe between 2009 and 2012.
But not many actions followed those words.
Africa “will be very low on (Trump’s) list of priorities” and any US action on the continent will likely be driven by his “do-it-yourself style of leadership,” Ray added.
Many experts agree, citing Trump’s “America First” strategy.
Murithi Mutiga, director of Africa programs at the Crisis Group, says the President-elect is “determined to isolate himself and wants to go back” in various sectors around the world.
Some say there are agreements to be made, even in Africa
J. Peter Pham, Trump’s former special envoy to Africa’s Great Lakes and Sahel regions, says Trump’s next president may be looking at a “win-win” situation in Africa.
That could include revitalizing the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which gives eligible African countries duty-free access to US markets, Pham said during a Voice of America broadcast.
However, U.S. lawmakers have been raising questions about whether African countries are complying with the terms of the program—or whether they are undermining U.S. foreign policy and national security, Pham said.
South Africa, one of the biggest beneficiaries of this program, was accused by US Ambassador Reuben Brigety in 2023 of supplying Russia with weapons and ammunition for its war in Ukraine and its neutral stance in the war was called into question.
Basically, you’re not “kicking America in the teeth” in ways that raise questions about compliance with such agreements, Pham said.
Those who do “will be treated like pariahs,” said Ray, with the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Many health and other issues in Africa, abortion and LGBTQ+ rights
The biggest concern is that the next Trump presidency will cut funding. In many parts of Africa, such cuts would be critical to millions of girls and young women whose reproductive health and choices are largely supported by US-funded programs.
“The situation is bad for girls (and) it will turn into a disaster without these services,” said Valentine Damitoni, an 18-year-old mother.
She regularly visits a clinic in Zimbabwe’s capital Harare to receive contraception under a US-funded program that allows her to return to school without fear of becoming pregnant again.
Max Primorac, former deputy director of the US Agency for International Development—one of Africa’s biggest development donors—has criticized some of the agency’s plans in Project 2025, a 900-page blueprint proposed by the conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation for reshaping. provincial government.
In particular, Primorac criticized USAID programs that “promote abortion, climate extremism and interventions to combat perceived systematic racism.” This document is said to be very much in line with Trump’s views – although they are far from it.
Kiron Skinner, head of policy planning at the US State Department during Trump’s first term in office, recommends in this document that in Africa, the United States should “focus on basic security, economics, and human rights” rather than imposing “strict abortions and counseling.” -LGBT programs.”
New restructuring in Africa, turning to Russia and China
In Africa’s volatile Sahel region, militaries are increasingly ousting elected Presidents and riding anti-Western sentiment to cut ties with old allies like the United States and France—while turning to a new ally: Russia.
China, which lends infrastructure loans to African countries as a mutually beneficial partnership, rarely interferes in the internal politics of recipient countries. Russia, the continent’s biggest arms supplier, often sleeps with African militaries.
Both countries, like America indeed, have shown great interest in Africa’s rich mineral resources.
Mutiga, of the Crisis Group, says “the problem historically has been that the US and Western countries see Africa as a problem” that needs to be solved. China and others “see it as an opportunity to be caught.”
Will Trump support Biden’s promises?
The Biden administration announced last December that it had invested at least $22 billion in Africa and promised to do more. Trump, during his first term, has been seeking to cut foreign affairs funding, sometimes as much as 30%.
Analysts are concerned about whether key US projects in health, security and development will be implemented under Trump – especially at a time of growing hunger and resurgent threats to democracy in Africa.
For many ordinary Africans, Trump is just a leader who cannot do much about their daily problems.
“Trump … will not save us from the famine caused by our government,” said Isah Mohammed, a fruit seller in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja.
Maps of Africa, from Western Sahara to Somalia
In Morocco, many are cheering after Trump’s victory, hoping that his return to power will help the North African country advance its campaign to gain international recognition for its sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara.
“The return of a Moroccan friend to the White House,” announced the Assabah state newspaper in its editorial.
As part of a larger deal involving Morocco to normalize its relations with Israel, Trump reversed old US policy and recognized Morocco’s sovereignty claims before leaving office in 2020.
Biden hasn’t reversed that decision—but he also hasn’t advanced the Trump administration’s promise to build an embassy in the disputed region.
Stability in the Horn of Africa is increasingly threatened by the raging war in Sudan and growing tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over a recent trade deal with Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland.
Trump is likely to cut funding to Somalia and engage more with Somaliland, predicts Rashid Abdi, an analyst at Nairobi-based Sahan Research.
What is stopping Africa’s progress? Perhaps Africa itself
The G20, a group of the world’s leading economies, accepted the African Union as a full member last year—a strong endorsement by the continent’s more than 50 countries and something Biden said was “a long time coming.”
But in spite of that step that affects the whole world, observers say that the union and its leaders did not reach what they expected, they failed to express their demands and put their demands as a group.
“The question is often, what will Washington do, but in reality, what is the interest of Africa?” said Mutiga, with Crisis Group.
“We are in an era of global trade relations and unless Africa is able to engage in a way that expresses its interests, America (interest in Africa) will continue to be determined by the country’s competitiveness and its competitors,” he said.
– Chinedu Asadu reported from Abuja, Nigeria. Associated Press reporters Farai Mutsaka in Harare, Zimbabwe, and Sam Metz in Rabat, Morocco, contributed to this report.
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